Wednesday, 16th March 2022
It’s Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival – but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….
I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to bag the best of the prices about my selections….
I sent out my advice for Day 2 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….
Today the focus is on Day 3 – where the feature events for handicap fans are the Pertemps Final over the hurdles and the 3m trip (2.10); the Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase over the 2m5f trip (4.10); and the Kim Muir over the 3m2f trip and 21 fences (5.30)….
There’s plenty to be getting on with. Let’s get down to it….
A dearth of winning form in the record of horses coming into the Pertemps Final (2.10) – relative to the form of horses going into other Festival handicaps – tells you that this is a contest ripe for a ‘plot’….
Horses can finish as low as 6th in a series qualifier to qualify for this final. In other words, connections can target this race without necessarily adversely affecting their horse’s handicap mark….
Just 3 of the last 23 Pertemps Final winners actually won a series qualifier en route to Cheltenham. The winning performance has generally been saved for the big day….
Gordon Elliot’s SASSY YET CLASSY bucks that trend having won a qualifier at Punchestown back in November. But – as a dyed in the wool contrarian – I’m not going to let that put me off backing her….
That big-field performance was produced on good to yielding ground. All her previous best form had been on much softer. But she proved it was no fluke in December at Navan where she found just one too good in another big-field event over the 3m trip on good ground….
She stayed really well up the hill at Navan that day. And she’ll be suited by the finishing stretch on the stamina-favouring New course at Cheltenham tomorrow….
Elliott has been the real force in this race in recent times – his 9 runners since 2016 producing 3 winners and 4 placers….
He’s got half-a-dozen running for him this time around and picking out the one best-primed is a job for a clairvoyant….
In the absence of one of those I’m taking Davy Russell’s presence in the saddle as a positive sign. He’s a Festival specialist and I doubt he’d be on the duffer. I like the general 14s….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & Betfred are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, Coral, 888sport, Unibet & Ladbrokes are 1/5 the first 6….
I’m sticking with Gordon Elliott in the Plate (4.10) – but there’s a change of approach insomuch as I’m backing two of his against the field with neither trading at what I would consider an each-way price….
FANCY FOUNDATIONS – probably best known for being Gordon Elliott’s first winner after returning to the sport from his ban – goes well fresh and is a horse that will appreciate the decent ground at Cheltenham….
This will be his first try in handicap company. He gets to race off 137 and he’ll carry just 10-08. He’s in the right part of the handicap for this race and I expect a big run under Jack Kennedy at the general 12s….
I’m also backing GRAND PARADIS under Davy Russell at the general 9s….
Running off a British mark of 145 – 6lbs higher than his Irish mark – he’ll carry 11-2. That’s a little more than absolutely ideal. And he’s high in the handicap for a horse that’s yet to post a win in five goes over fences….
But the 6yo is full of promise and he’s shown up strong in a couple of big-field handicaps – running into a likely G1 horse last time at Gowran Park – without managing to get his head in front….
Those performances suggest it’s only a matter of time before he lands a pot. The big field will clearly suit. And he’s shown a liking for decent ground over in Ireland….
Tomorrow will mark his debut in handicaps. You’d think he’s been primed for this. I expect him to step forward and run a big one….
I’m going to back both to win and hope one can do the business. If you prefer to do just one each-way – and if you were to put a gun to my head – then I’d opt for Fancy Foundations….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power, Unibet & Betfred are 1/5 the first 6. BetVictor, William Hill, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, 888sport & Ladbrokes are 1/5 the first 5….
COME ON TEDDY is the pick in the Kim Muir (5.30). He’s a fair price at 12s under Will Biddick…
He’s taken to fences and though he only finished 5th in the Dipper at Cheltenham on New Years’ Day – over a trip that will prove inadequate over time – he wasn’t so very far behind horses that ran with credit in yesterday’s Ultima. And this race wouldn’t be so deep as that….
With only three chase runs under his belt, he is still learning. But he also has margin to make big leaps of progression. And if he’s going to step forward then Cheltenham is a good place to anticipate that happening – he likes the place….
In addition to his run in the Dipper he also has Festival pedigree. He was a staying-on 3rd in last season’s Pertemps Final behind Mrs Milner and if he can transfer that form to the bigger obstacles than he’s going to be in the mix tomorrow….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, bet365, Paddy Power, Unibet & Betfred are 1/5 the first 6. It is 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Pertemps Final (2.10 @ Cheltenham)….
In the Craft Irish Whiskey Co. Plate Handicap Chase (4.10 @ Cheltenham)….
In the Kim Muir (5.30 @ Cheltenham)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on Day 4 at the Cheltenham Festival….
Until then….
Stay tuned.
Brought to you by Spa Publishing Group Ltd @ 2026 
