Monday, 28th March 2022
In Saturday’s Lincoln the low side of the draw and up with the early pace was the place to be. No doubt….
Winner Johann emerged from stall 4 – always close to the front end. Runner-up Saleymm ran from stall 3 and was at the head of affairs from start to finish….
Irish Admiral – the most exposed and least fancied of William Haggas’ trio – finished 4th in a first-time tongue strap and also benefited from a low-side berth (stall 1) and early position. Broken Spear in 5th started in stall 5….
Few horses made a race of it from behind. Seven of the last eight home started from double-figure stalls….
Rogue Bear was the prominent finisher (3rd) who did it differently – and he’s worth noting….
Tom Clover’s 4yo began the race all the way out on the other side of the track in stall 19….
And that’s not all he was up against. Watch the start of the race again – focusing solely on Rogue Bear – and you’ll see he wasn’t the quickest out of the gates….
Everything around him gets the drop on him and he suffers a bump as he jostles for position. Within strides he’s right at the back of that group. Not ideal. Particularly as the early pace proves far from electric….
Jockey David Egan clearly doesn’t want to be where he’s stuck. With the field still inside the first furlong he spots what he thinks might be room up the middle and he moves Rogue Bear in-field to take advantage. But it doesn’t pan out….
As the duo make their way across, the field squeezes-up and the space evaporates. By the time Egan and Rogue Bear get to where Egan wanted to be, they’re behind another wall of horses – and they’re right out the back of the field….
Egan quickly recalculates and concludes he was better off where he’d been before – and he angles Rogue Bear back out to the near-side wing of the field….
He manages to get cover behind Fame And Acclaim – with daylight and a run down the outside available to him as and when he needs it….
Egan has made the best of a bad job. But none of this is ideal….
The quickest route between two points is a straight line. All this weaving about is detrimental to the horse’s chances….
So too the fact that whilst Egan got some cover it didn’t give him the tow into the race required….
The horses Egan’s following never really get into the race – and there’s still 3-furlongs to go when Egan decides to push the button and crack on….
You can see his dilemma. Had he left it later, the front end horses would have been away from him completely. But going when he did meant he was still a fair way from home with his mount running into daylight….
No matter. The did his job. He bit down on the gumshield and showed a good attitude and real guts to dig out a determined finish….
He did well to finish as close as he did – just 1.75 lengths in arrears – given how his race panned out. And – without the earlier detours – he would have been closer still….
He raced off a mark of 87 – likely producing a career best. It was his first go in an C2 handicap against open opposition and his first crack at a proper big field.
He certainly didn’t look out of place and left the impression he can win a pot off his current perch….
Brunch finished 2nd in last season’s Lincoln off a mark of 100….
On Saturday – rated 104 – he was 8th. But – at the post – only 3.5 lengths separated him from the winner….
You could make the argument that the extra 4lbs on the rating scale (he only carried a pound more in actual weight than last year) made the difference….
But trainer Michael Dods pointed out ahead of the race that his horse wasn’t 100% would come on for the run. In that context, Saturday’s performance suggests Brunch can have a big season….
After showing up well in defeat in big handicaps at Doncaster and York in the early stages of the last campaign – climbing to 104 as a consequence – Dods targeted Brunch at Stakes races after Royal Ascot….
He won a Listed event at Pontefract. But he was well-held and well-beaten in subsequent goes at Listed and G3 class – without coming back down the rating scale….
The good thing about reverting back to big field handicaps – as Brunch did on Saturday – is that your horse can run with credit and still get a pound or two shaved off his rating….
It wouldn’t surprise me if Brunch were lowered from 104 (a mark he’s been stuck on for five races) when reassessed. And – if that’s the case – then he’s approaching a point where he’s back in business in the handicaps….
Looking at the profiles of Brunch and Johan going into Saturday’s Lincoln, my take would have been that Brunch is the superior horse. He’d certainly achieved more from a similar number of races….
But it was Johan – rated 102 having been as high as 106 – who ran out the winner. A new regime at Mick Channon’s yard probably made a big difference. But so too did a drop of a few pounds on the rating scale….
With a pound or two off his back – and stripping fitter for Saturday’s run – I see Brunch as a big player in a big-field mile handicap at some point this term….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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