Friday, 1st April 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
The big target (indeed the only target) – for big-field handicap afficionados this weekend is the Scottish Grand National up at Ayr – where a field of 24 heads to post on ground described as good to soft….
Favourites don’t have a great record in this contest – with just two winning examples in the last 21 years. Kitty’s Light must overcome that stat and the fact that he’s just a 6yo. No horse has won this race as a 6yo for 28-years….
Only two horses have won carrying more than 11-02 since 2000. Fourteen winners over the period carried 10-09 or less….
Novices have a decent record – producing 10 winners in the last 25-years. Fourteen winners since the turn of the century were returning to the track off a break of 38 days or less….
With a gun pointed at my head I could probably make a strong case for at least a dozen of tomorrow’s runners. That’s a fact….
I don’t know if I make the job easier or more difficult for myself by striving to dig out one I can fancy that the market doesn’t rate. That’s the job though – and there are one or two viable candidates in the nether reaches of the market….
I thought long and had about taking a leap of faith with One More Fleurie. He’s been disappointing in three goes this term. But he returns to the scene of his career-best win in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase at last year’s meeting – a race that’s worked out well….
You’d have to think this race has been the long-term plan since then – considering the way he finished off that day over 3-miles. And whilst he has certainly disappointed this season he’ not had his sights lowered and Ian Williams thinks the 624 mile round trip to Ayr is worth it….
He could bounce back with a big run. No doubt about that. And from the front-end of proceedings he could be a tough nut to crack late on. But his form is a big worry and he’s not the only option at a price….
In the end, the one I’ve opted for is David Pipe’s VIA DOLOROSA at the general 22s. I think he’s a massive price for a horse that’s produced two back to back victories coming into this – and improved in leaps and bounds for each of them….
You could make the case that he hasn’t got sufficient seasoning for a race of this nature. But I’d oppose that thinking. He was going well in the Becher when hampered in December. And he’d run a good race in the Grand Sefton the previous month over what would likely be an inadequate trip….
Like plenty of others he will need to prove his stamina tomorrow but he’s a strong traveller, he hasn’t been stopping in his races and he’s in fantastic order. If he stays, he goes close – it’s a simple as that. And his price this morning is very generous….
Each-way backers take note: bet365, Sky Bet & Betfred are 1/5 the first 7. It is 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Scottish Grand National (3.35 @ Ayr)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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