Wednesday, 6th April 2022
It will make for great front page stories in the Sunday papers if Snow Leopardess wins the Grand National on Saturday afternoon….
She’d be the first mare to win the race since Nickel Coin back in 1951….
She’s a grey. She’s a mare. Her name grabs the attention. And she’s got a back story that will resonate with the general public – having had a foal before returning to the track….
She’s exactly the type of horse that the general public might latch onto ahead of the race. And the bookies are doing their level best to build the hype surrounding her….
It’s still only Wednesday and the bookies are already talking her up and encouraging punters to lump on….
This from Sky Bet spokesman Michael Shinners….
‘She’s easily our worst result at this stage. Since we went non-runner no bet at midday on Thursday, she has been very well supported. We’ve taken 4,000 more bets on her than any other horse – it’s been one-way traffic for her. We thought it might be later on in the week that people latched on to her story, but she's already been very popular. As it stands, we’re keen to duck her and lay a few others in our book as it’s pretty lopsided at the moment. We’ve laid plenty on her and not much on anybody else.’
And this from Nicola McGeady at Ladbrokes….
‘Delta Work is the biggest ante-post mover and liability right now for us, but the Charlie Longsdon-trained co-favourite (Snow Leopardess) is expected to fly ahead in the popularity stakes come the day.’
There will be some truth in what Shinners and McGeady say – mixed in with the exaggerations. But they aren’t trying to be helpful. Far from it….
The betting industry as a whole wants one at the top of the market for the big race that they believe will get turned over on the day – a scenario very much in the betting industry’s favour….
Snow Leopardess is the vehicle of choice….
Regardless of what the bookies say or imply – they don’t fancy her to get the job done on Saturday. They expect her to get beaten. And they want plenty of the public’s money riding on her when she does….
If they genuinely fancied her, you wouldn’t hear them even mention her. That’s a fact. Bookies don’t get fat and rich giving punters winning tips. They’re selling her up and shortening-up the price in an effort to sucker in as much cash as they can early doors….
She’s already up at just 8s across the board. That’s plenty short enough for me in a compressed 40-runner handicap….
Of course, the mare is not without a chance. After all, she won the Becher over the big fences in December. But the price is the key consideration….
The bookies must be clapping their hands being able to lay her in volume at 8s – five days out from the off….
Olly Murphy’s GUNSIGHT RIDGE has a nice profile for the Red Rum Handicap Chase at 4.40 on Day 1 of the Festival tomorrow….
He’s a 7yo, lightly-raced over fences, quick, a good jumper, and he’s towards the bottom end of the handicap – carrying just 10-7 off his mark of 134….
He’s been pretty consistent since being sent over fences. A 6-length defeat to L’Homme Presse in a C3 handicap at Exeter in December – with the rest 10+ lengths in arrears – reads like a reasonable bit of form now….
Venetia Williams horse hasn’t been beaten since, is a two-time G1 winner, and is rated 164 on the official scale. He’s 3rd favourite for next season’s Gold Cup. In short, he’s a very good horse indeed….
Granted L’Homme Presse was having his first go over fences that day at Exeter and has improved mightily. But Gunsight Ridge had only raced once over bigger obstacles himself. He’s surely got improvement to give and is potentially very well handicapped on a mark of 134….
The time after the Exeter race he won on heavy ground at Sandown. Then – back at the same track in February – he bumped into a very well-handicapped Dolos on his favourite track in a contest he’d literally farmed across the last few seasons….
Frero Banbou beat him home from the back that day too – but Olly Murphy’s horse probably paid late on for having helped set the quick early fractions….
He hasn’t been seen since and having skipped the Cheltenham Festival he turns up at Aintree a little fresher than most. I think he’ll have been kept back for this. He’s yet to show his very best hand and I expect a big run at the general 9s….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Red Rum Handicap Chase (4.40 @ Aintree)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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