Dark horses for Day 3 at Aintree....

Friday, 8th April 2022

Dark horses for Day 3 at Aintree….

It’s Day 2 at Aintree ­ but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….

I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to bag the best of the prices about my selections….

I sent out my advice for Day 2 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….

I must apologize for getting the time of the Topham wrong in yesterday’s email – a schoolboy error. Put it down to an overworked mind. Thanks to the eagle-eyed readers who wrote in to point out my mistake….

Today the focus is on Day 3 (Saturday) where the highlight is the Grand National….

The going at Aintree this morning is described as good-to-soft on both the Mildmay and the Grand National courses….

There’s a chance of isolated showers but the forecast is for largely dry weather with sunny spells. The track should dry out a bit. Connections of horses that want proper soft ground face disappointment…. 

• In the Grand National....

The Grand National – is run at 5.15….

In the last 30 editions more than half the favourites finished in the first four. And  only nine of the winners were outside the first eight in the betting….

In other words – despite the big field and the unorthodox nature of the race – the market has performed well as a pre-race indicator….

No problem. The market is there to be made use of – if that’s your bag. But my job isn’t to simply regurgitate what the market is already telling you loud and clear. My role – albeit self-imposed – is to tell you something the market has missed….

I’ll be backing two at prices each-way…

FREEWHEELIN DYLAN won last season’s Irish Grand National sent off at 150s. He didn’t know what price he was and horses he beat that day include Run Wild Fred, Enjoy D’allen, Escaria Ten and Augusta Gold – all of whom reoppose tomorrow….

The first three named are shorter in the betting than the 50s you can get about Dermot McLoughlin’s charge – and I reckon the 10yo represents value in a race he’s been targeted at from the word go this season….

Any suspicions that the Fairyhouse win was a fluke were discounted next time out at Punchestown where Freewheelin Dylan showed up well off a mark 8lbs higher and under a big weight. He produced another respectable performance next time in the Midlands National Handicap Chase at Kilbeggan….

He’s done little since – unseating in a cross country race at Cheltenham in November and pulling up over hurdles at Fairyhouse in January. But this is a spring horse who comes to life with sun on his back and bounce underfoot….

The other one I’m going with is Henry Daly’s FORTESCUE who creeps in at the bottom of the weights 4lb well in. He can be backed at 28s….

He’s a big lengthy horse – tailor made for these big fences. He jumps really well and he’s a proper strong stayer – out-battling Fiddlerontheroof at Ascot last time – and he should relish this extreme trip….

You need luck in this race. At the very least you need to avoid instances of bad luck. But if this 8yo jumps like we know he can then he’ll be going better than most at the death….

Given that there are 40-runners, I’ll also be backing LONGHOUSE POET – win only. He can be backed at 16s this morning – not an each-way price for me….

He’s a different type of horse than the other two – with a bit of class and more speed in his profile. But he jumps really well and he shaped at Gowran Park in January’s Thyestes like a proper trip will improve him again….

He’s young, he’s relatively unexposed and his trainer has a cracking record of targeting this race when he has the right type – having saddled Numbersixvalverde to win and place in 2006 and 2007 and Double Seven to place in 2014….

That’s a cracking performance from just three goes and I see Longhouse Poet adding more polish to the record with a big run tomorrow….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, Betway & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally. Note: I’d expect some bookies to offer more places on Saturday….

• In the Betway....

In the Betway at 4.15 Colin Tizzard’s KILLER KANE makes appeal at the general 14s & 12s….

He’s progressed nicely for his last two runs (winning novice events at Kempton and Sandown)  and while this is a step up in class and opposition on what will be just his 6th run, he’s on the crest of a wave and he’s nicely rated on 131 for a first go at open handicap level on ground and a track that will suit….

He’s back up to the 3m trip for just the second time and given that he rated 126 over hurdles it’s almost inconceivable that he isn’t ahead of the handicapper in this sphere. He’s a fair price….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….

• In the EFT Construction....

Evan Williams is having a cracking season in the big handicaps. His The Last Man (the last horse off my shortlist before I plumped for disappointing Gunsight Ridge – ouch!) was the latest success – winning yesterday’s Red Rum Handicap Chase….

There could be more to come for the yard when DANS LE VENT contests the EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle tomorrow afternoon at 1.45….

He’s had a very consistent season whilst only scoring once. But the drying ground gives him a big chance of going in again tomorrow.

On the four occasions in the last 12 months that he’s encountered good or good to soft ground his figures read  2/22; 2/12; 1/12; 3/17 – all form produced in top-level handicaps….

I don’t think he’s handicapped out of it on a mark of 141 – and I like the step back up to 3-miles on the better ground. The 12s is acceptable….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. Betfred are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….

• The final word….

That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….

Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd