Friday, 22nd April 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
Christian Williams hasn’t done much wrong in staying chase events this term….
And he’s not quite finished yet – three-handed as he is in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown tomorrow….
His Win My Wings has been a revelation since stepping up in trip in the cheekpieces – winning the Eider at Newcastle before running away with the Scottish Grand National a month later at Ayr….
----- On the money – this column on Williams in December….
She’s gone up another stone to a mark of 154 for her troubles – so it gets no easier….
…. especially on ground that might lack the same bit of cut she produced back-to-back career bests on….
But she’s absolutely bang in form – and a picker desperate to look clever might be tempted to back her at the general 5s….
Or stablemate Kitty’s Light – whose done everything but win a valuable handicap this term – at 9/2….
Or Enrilo at 7/2 – trained by the in-form race specialist Paul Nicholls and who ‘won’ the race last term before being demoted for interfering with Kitty’s Light – at 7/2….
Who would blame such a man? Who would have the heart to chastise him?
After all, the racing game is all about winners – whether you’re training them, riding them, or backing them. And ahead of tomorrow’s race these horses look like big players – no doubt….
Certainty is no guarantee of anything, of course – not in this race-betting game. But if you did put one of the well-qualified trio and watched it get beat – where would be the downside? Who’d dare criticise you for being ‘wrong’ or ‘s*%t’?
After all, you wouldn’t be ‘wrong’ or ‘s*%t’ alone. Oh no. Instead, you’d commiserate in quality company – and plenty of it….
Unlike the poor old ragged-trousered contrarian who tasks himself weekly with the unholy job of digging out a ‘live’ contender from further down the list – and who frequently dies the death of thousand cuts alone in a ditch….
But that’s part of the fun and I stick to my guns. You can figure out the best of the short-priced jobs yourself. But I back dark horses and this week it’s John C McConnell’s STREETS OF DOYEN who gets the nod at the general 14s….
McConnell’s last 235 runners in Britain produced 53 winners @ 22.6% – a top drawer performance which tells us he doesn’t like wasting petrol….
He probably wouldn’t be in Surrey tomorrow if he’d run in the Scottish Grand National or the Irish version on Monday – but he missed the former on account of not being well and the latter on account of the ground. So he shows up here….
His last actual run was back in March at Cheltenham where he was thrown at the G1 Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase where he pulled up….
That was an odd assignment all ends up – and you can read it one of two ways. One: he’s either way better than his current mark. Or two: his trainer was wining in. But why did he run when the ground turned so desperate on the Wednesday?
I can’t answer that last question. That’s one for McConnell. But I reckon this horse is likely better than his current rating of 138 over fences – a pound lower than he’s rated over hurdles….
I think it’s nailed on he’s going to prove better over the bigger obstacles and he’s going to rate in the 140s at least. So he’s got margin tomorrow and it also looks like he’s going to get some of the bounce in the ground that his trainer’s been looking for.
The 14s is a fair price….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill & Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the bet365 Gold Cup (3.32 @ Sandown)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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