Friday, 29th April 2022
It’s Friday – that time of the week when I put on my tin hat, stick my head above the parapet, and do my level best to dig out genuine dark horses in the top-level handicaps….
…. ‘live’ contenders that are overlooked or underestimated in the betting….
…. contrarian selections that go against consensus market opinion….
…. or – in other words – the right kind of horses trading at the wrong prices….
Before we crack on, a quick note to remind you to look out for me in your email box tomorrow – when I’ll be highlighting my selection for Sunday’s 1000 Guineas….
Kieren Fallon once described the 2000 Guineas as a ‘war’ for 3yo horses. He said that only the very bravest horses win the race….
He made those comments following Night Of Thunder’s win back in 2014. That year’s edition of the race was white hot….
Kingman, Australia, Charm Spirit, Kingston Hill, and The Grey Gatsby all took part and all subsequently scored at G1 level. Toormore, War Command and Outstrip had all won G1 events as juveniles….
Night Of Thunder dug deep that day – calling on all his reserves of stamina, grit, determination, and bravery – to deny Kingman right at the death. He had to fight like a demon – all the way to the line. Had he given an inch, he would have been defeated….
The bottom line in this race is that you can’t give an inch and that you absolutely have to stay the trip. You must get the mile….
It would be a rare horse that found a weak enough renewal of a 2000 Guineas to win without seeing the mile out strong….
There will be no problems at the trip for Roger Varian’s EYDON tomorrow afternoon – and he’s my dark horse at a very backable 25s this morning….
He broke his maiden last time in the Listed-class Feilden Stakes over the 9f trip – on the same straight he’ll be running on tomorrow. We know he handles the track – and that experience will hold him in good stead….
His win was a big shock at the prices on the day – but he won well switching to turf and hold-up tactics for the first time. He produced a much improved performance under David Egan – one that suggested there is more to come yet….
The early pace was steady that last day and if tomorrow’s bigger field produces hotter early fractions, you’d think that would see Eydon to better effect still late on in the race….
The fancied horses have the big numbers in the book and the big-name connections. No doubt they deserve their place at the top of the market based on what they’ve achieved in their careers to date….
But my job isn’t to jump on one of those. My job is to try and identify one that is off the radar – one set to outrun its price and to defy market expectation….
Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the odds in the first 4 generally….
A field of 20 goes to post for the My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap over 6f at Newmarket at 1.50….
RAATEA ran a decent enough seasonal debut earlier this month over course and distance – 3rd of 12 and beaten just half a length
He didn’t do himself any favours dwelling at the start, then running a bit keen and then losing a fore shoe somewhere between the stalls and the finishing post….
He certainly did best of those from the rear that day – the first two were always up in the van – and he’s going to prove himself better than his mark of 91 at some point….
With a run under his belt and a better run at it than he got last time, tomorrow could be the day. He’s a fair price at the general 12s….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, bet365, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & Betway are 1/5 the first 6….
PISANELLO is up 6lbs for his victory at Beverley just last week – but he’s still rated just 83 and can overcome the jump in class to go in again in tomorrow’s Thirsk Hunt Cup at 2.05….
That Beverley run was just his 4th go for David O’Meara since switching to Britain from France….
O’Meara has form with French imports – think Lord Glitters – and maybe he needed some time to get to grips with this 5yo….
Off a 201 day break – with the cheekpieces removed – Pisanello certainly didn’t have it all his own way. He was slow away, towards the rear and taken up the inside he was repeatedly short of room when trying to make his effort….
Other horses got first run on him as they entered the final furlong but he fairly motored home once Jason Watson angled him out and got towards the outside of the field….
It was hardly straight line stuff – but it was easily his best effort since joining O’Meara. He won going away in the end and is good value for the 6lb rise based on the visual impression he made and on the best of his form in France. The 12s is a fair price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the 2000 Guineas (3.40 @ Newmarket)….
In the My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap (1.50 @ Newmarket)….
In the Thirsk Hunt Cup (2.05 @ Thirsk)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow – with my selection for Sunday’s 1000 Guineas. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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