Saturday, 30th April 2022
My dark horse selections for the 2000 Guineas – and this afternoon’s two big-field handicaps at Newmarket and Thirsk – was distributed yesterday. You’ll find my thoughts here….
This morning, my focus is on the 1000 Guineas – run at Newmarket tomorrow afternoon at 3.40….
Andre Fabre is not in the habits of wasting ammunition when he sends horses into one of the Guineas races at Newmarket….
The five horses he’s sent over the last two decades produced combined form figures of 83123. In other words, just one failed to place….
His ZELLIE turns out for tomorrow’s race having been beaten earlier this month on seasonal debut in France over 7f by Malavath – who reopposes tomorrow….
French race analysts report that the Wootton Bassett filly was carrying condition on the day – and wasn’t exactly given a hard time by Oliver Peslier in a race run on heavy ground….
We can deduce – reasonably I think – from this that Fabre had left himself plenty to work with and I believe we can expect a much improved performance tomorrow from a filly that will be closer to concert pitch and who will appreciate the return to a mile….
Having won the Prix Marcel Boussac at last season’s Arc meeting, Zellie has stayed the mile trip more stoutly than any in tomorrow’s field who have tried the trip to date….
Of course, plenty of those are stronger for another winter – and open to all sorts of natural improvement. And some horses that haven’t tried the trip will likely improve for it. But Zellie is open to improvement too….
Like I say, Fabre’s record in the English Guineas races is noteworthy. He doesn’t send one on a whim. He tends to send when he believes….
I am honour-bound to report the potential negatives as well as the positives – and I note that Fabre has not gone to the trouble of bringing over a French jockey as he has done on previous Guineas raids….
I don’t know if that says something about a lack of confidence. You could perhaps make that case. But in-form Tom Marquand – who has shown he can be trusted to deliver on the big days – is no bad substitute. And I take the view that if there were no confidence, the filly wouldn’t be here at all….
At 10s and 9s it isn’t as if Zellie has been entirely overlooked by the market. But the price has sufficient juice – and that’s the way I’m going….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the 1000 Guineas (Sunday, 3.40 @ Newmarket)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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