Tuesday, 10th May 2022
Tomorrow is Day 1 of York’s Dante meeting and the Churchill Tyres Handicap at 2.25 – in which 22 horses will go at it up the 6f straight – is the race worth targeting….
Probably the first question a number of readers are going to ask is this: why aren’t you backing Count D’orsay?
After all, I highlighted Tim Easterby’s 6yo as a potential winner in waiting yesterday. And you might think I’d be keen to strike whilst the iron is hot….
I don’t discount the horse (there aren’t many you can summarily discount) but betting these big-field handicaps is a game of prices for me and the 12s about Count D’orsay this morning – whilst not too short to consider – is short enough given he’s unlikely to get cut in the ground….
At the prices I much prefer to side with MAKANAH – he can be backed easily at 18s and 16s this morning….
Rated 103 this time last year, he didn’t manage to register a single win last term from eight goes. He’s dropped to a rating of 96 as a result – his last winning rating – and he’s poised to strike….
He’s already had a run this term at Musselburgh – a track he really likes – and he’ll be fitter for that outing. He was 4th of 11 on the day and beaten just 1.75 lengths….
There was plenty to like about the run over the minimum distance. He met bits of trouble in running – getting a bit squeezed up at one point – but he kept to his work well. What I really liked was the way he finished the race off – lashing home late doors….
Most of his career work has been done at the 5f trip. Tomorrow he steps up again to 6f – and I can see why. Based on that Musselburgh run, he’s well worth another shot over the extra furlong. And he might just need it these days….
On a surface reading Makanah wouldn’t strike you as an out-and-out York horse. He’s been to the track five times without managing a win….
But a closer inspection of the record reveals that he’s been beaten less than 2-lengths on four occasions. And those are performance figures that suggest he can win a race at York – when things fall right for him….
I think he’s overpriced this morning. I like his rating, I liked the Musselburgh run, I like the step up in trip, and I like Paul Mulrennan – his clear preferred dance partner – in the saddle….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill, bet365, Betfred & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Churchill Tyres Handicap (2.25 @ York)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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