Wednesday, 1st June 2022
‘I love a trip to Epsom.’ So said trainer Paul Midgley earlier this week….
Jockey Jack Mitchell is counting down the hours too. ‘It’s a very exciting week and it’s a big thing for me having grown up in Epsom.’
Somebody else will also be looking forward to the Epsom cards on Friday and Saturday – 100%....
You won’t find any newspaper quotes confirming it. He hasn’t made any statements. Nor does he need too….
The historic record tells you everything you need to know – loud and clear….
When it comes to C2 handicaps at Epsom – at the Derby meeting or any other over the last 12-years – one man stands out….
Andrew Balding has a record in C2 handicap races at Epsom that is head and shoulders above those of his training counterparts….
And – whilst always bearing in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future success – the C2 handicappers he saddles at the track this weekend are very much worth your attention, scrutiny, and consideration….
That’s what the numbers say. And the numbers don’t lie….
Balding’s 57 qualifying runners since 2010 produced 8 winners and 14 additional places….
That return equates to a win strike rate of 14% and a total place strike rate of 38.6%....
Underwhelmed? Are you thinking that just eight winners over 12 long years doesn’t sound much like a record worth wasting ink on?
Well – in the interests of context – let me tell you that the only handler whose win volume corresponds with Balding’s over the same period is Mark Johnston….
He too has posted 8 winners – and 12 additional placers. But it took him 100 runners to return those figures – 43 more darts than Andrew Balding has thrown at the board….
And let me also tell you this: very few handlers have even managed to win three qualifying races over the period….
Richard Fahey has had four. Sylvester Kirk had four back in the day. Roger Varian has had five (all top-2 in the market). Ian Williams, Sir Michael Stoute and Ralph Beckett have each had three….
The numbers don’t lie. All things taken together Andrew Balding has the best record at Epsom in the C2 handicaps since 2010. No doubt….
David Probert is the go-to rider for Balding these days. He’s ridden 45% of the horses Balding has sent out since the beginning of March – and 60% of the winners the yard has enjoyed over the same period….
And the pair have a great record in these C2 handicaps at Epsom – with four wins and five places from the last 22 qualifiers on which they’ve combined….
It’s something worth knowing as we head into the weekend. Most of the people you bet against don’t….
I’m sticking with Balding for tomorrow’s Zetland Cup (4.45)….
It’s a hell of a long way from Hampshire to Redcar (and back again) for the race….
But there will be no other horse in the box with JOHNNY DRAMA. I take that as a sign that he’s not just turning out for a blow – and that he’s worth a punt to cover the petrol money at this afternoon’s 14s….
Perhaps there are no other assignments at 10f for a 102-rated handicapper in the weeks ahead. Perhaps Balding has had his hand forced....
I don’t know. But I do know that Johnny Drama has genuine C2 pedigree and that a mark of 102 – he’s rated 106 on the AW – isn’t beyond him….
He wasn’t beaten far off a mark of 103 in a good handicap at York last August – and this race doesn’t have the depth of that one….
Of course, there are serious dangers. Turntable’s big 2nd at Newmarket is good form. Bollin Joan is progressive. Baryshnikov looks sure to rate better than 94. And What’s The Story is on a nice mark and looks like he’s running into form….
This is a handicap. There are no certs in handicaps. Handicaps are ultra- competitive. In plenty of handicaps, plenty of runners have a ‘live’ chance. That’s a fact….
For me, price is the key differential. Whilst the other contenders have been found to one degree or another, Johnny Drama is up at a double-figure price – and that underestimates him….
Perhaps his seasonal debut on the AW – 4th of 4 and beaten 6-lengths is putting the market off….
Fair enough. But he shaped like he really needed that race. It was his first run for 272 days, his first since a wind-op and I think he could well sharpen up considerably for the outing….
It was the first time he’d ever had a claimer on his back too. Callum Hutchinson took off 5lb and the pair reunite for tomorrow’s assignment – with a little more knowledge of one another. I don’t think they’re as out of it as the betting suggests….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally.
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Zetland (4.45 @ Redcar)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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