Monday, 6th June 2022
I don't mind losing – it’s part of the game. And – the way I play – I’m always going to back plenty of losers....
But the very least I expect from myself is to pick out horses that produce competitive runs. That didn't happen at the weekend….
I can’t tell you why every horse I picked out ran down the field. Sometimes, that’s just how things work out. But it doesn’t make it any easier to swallow….
Roger Fell’s Cockalorum – 4th of 10 and beaten 4.5 lengths in last week’s Zetland at Redcar – is worth popping into your tracker….
He gave the impression he’s running back into form after a period in the doldrums….
Rated 95 he produced his best run since last summer and stuck to his work up with the pace for a long way before fading late on….
I’ve no doubt he can win off his current mark. Last term he was beaten just a head in the John Smith’s Cup at York off 95 – one of several good efforts he’s produced at that track….
I reckon he’s going to be dropped a pound or two on the back of last week’s performance. He was beaten far enough to force the handicapper’s hand. Down to 94 or 93 he’s dangerous….
Given that he needs to be out front in his races, it’s got to drop just right for him in big-field handicaps….
Winning one is not beyond him. He’s proven that. But four of his five career wins have come in fields of nine or fewer – and perhaps those kinds of races are where the 7yo is most likely to strike….
The Wokingham might seem a strange place to begin coverage of the Royal Ascot handicaps – given it’s run on Day 5….
But – with the exception of the Royal Hunt Cup – it’s the daddy handicap of the meeting for me and a logical race to look at first….
It’s a race for horses aged 3yo+ and officially rated 0 to 110 – run up the straight 6f strip. Expect a big field – 25+ runners went to post in 17 of the last 20 renewals....
Note: we had dead-heat winners in 2003. I class both Fayr Jag and Ratio as winners and I talk about 21 winners even though there have been just 20 editions since 2002....
Favourites won 4 of the last 20 editions. Five more winners were sent off in 2nd or 3rd spot in the betting. The average winning SP is 14s….
Of the 74 horses to place (I include 5th place), 39 were sent off at 16s or bigger. There’s plenty for each-way players to shoot at....
Ahead of dividing runners into the probable, the possible and the no-hopers, it’s worth looking at key features in the historic record – the strongest act as a useful guide....
Ability and fitness are key considerations, of course. But the stats have a story to tell too. They’re not infallible but they reveal what types of horses tend to do well – and it’s always an advantage to know which runners conform to a prevailing blueprint and which don’t....
The Wokingham is unique in that it is the one big race run up the straight 6f at Ascot that habitually attracts 25+ runners....
17 of the last 20 renewals saw between 25 and 29 runners emerge from the stalls....
I like races with unique features. A unique feature is a route into a race. Unique features produce unique race circumstances. And it’s always interesting to assess what impact or effect those unique race circumstances might have on outcomes....
A field of up to 29 runners stretches a long way across the Ascot track. At the start of the race – when the horses are in the stalls – more of the track is potentially in play than is the case for any other race up the 6f strip....
If there’s a part of the track which is quicker and more advantageous than other parts – owing to drainage, compaction, conditions or whatever – then the Wokingham is a race that should advertise that fact over time....
Of course, the stall in which a horse starts a race is not the be-all and end-all....
Pace – and where that is on the track – plays a big part. So too the tactics required by individual horses. It also matters which horses and jockeys are drawn in which clusters....
And nothing is more important than ability. Put five animals with just three legs apiece in the middle-5 stalls and it won’t make any difference how advantaged or disadvantaged those middle stalls are – physical limitations will see to it that those horses don’t win....
On top of that, track biases come and go. Conditions one week can alter biases which might otherwise have held steady for ten years....
Looking at the performance of individual stalls in the last 10 editions of the Wokingham (as we are about to do) won’t tell us much about conditions on the track next month. Other races run at the meeting before the Wokingham will provide more pertinent real-time guidance....
But how stalls performed in previous editions of the unique Wokingham will tell us something worth knowing. It’s a part of the information record worth consulting....
The table below shows the performance of each individual stall (in terms of % of opponents beaten) in each of the last 10 renewals of the Wokingham....
Now, I understand if your initial reaction to that table involves scratching your head….
Let me make it a little clearer by grouping the stalls into thirds – bottom-third, middle-third, and top-third....
Now, we see something a bit more useful....
The bias is not heavily pronounced. But it’s there. Horses drawn middle beat a bigger percentage of their opponents than horses drawn in the low- and high-third stalls – with the high-third marginally better than the bottom third….
In addition, I would say this: 8 of the top 10 performing stalls are numbered 10 or higher. 5 of the bottom ten performing stalls are single-digit stalls….
These observations alone won’t lead directly to the winner, of course. But they help us take an informed view. They give us context to work with….
The individual runners, pace, tactics and all the rest of it will need to be considered. For sure. But there’s no getting away from the fact that ‘live’ contenders drawn middle or high are better off than those drawn low....
That’s something worth knowing. I can guarantee that plenty of people you bet against next week won’t be aware of it....
P.S. If you’d like a copy of the Excel file with the individual stalls listed in order of % of opponents beaten (a little too long a list for the column), drop me a line at the email address below….
That’s all for today. More tomorrow. Meanwhile….
Anything to report? Anything to say? Anything to share? Contact me at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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