Dark horses on Day 1 at Royal Ascot....

Monday, 13th June 2022

Dark horses on Day 1 at Royal Ascot….

We have to wait until 5.00 on Day 1 for the first handicap of the Royal meeting – the Ascot Stakes over the 2m4f trip….

Willie Mullins has by far the best record of any trainer in this race with four winners and five placers from his last 18 runners….

His sole entry this year – Bring On The Night – is favourite but punters should bear in mind that he lacks experience on the flat. And he’s yet to encounter  ground as quick as he’ll run on tomorrow….

It’s also worth bearing in mind that the record of favourites is poor in this race – with 17 of the last 20 getting turned over on the day….

The Ascot Stakes is usually won by an established jumps yard and punters zeroing in on that angle have plenty of options with Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Paul Nicholls, Alan King, and Dan Skelton all represented….

I’m pinning my colours to Skelton’s PROSCHEMA – who looks a little generously priced at this morning’s 16s….

Yes, he’s rated 100 and only three renewals from the last 19 have been won by a horse rated higher than 95 – but the 7yo ran decent races from that kind of mark when campaigned on the flat early in his career at 12f and 14f….

Since then he’s been running and winning over hurdles and longer trips – and this return to the flat at a longer trip is interesting….

One thing is for sure – he will appreciate the quick surface a lot more than some of his more fancied rivals tomorrow. He liked it quick on the flat and if he can reproduce some of his best efforts – or even improve on them for the longer trip – then he’s still potentially nicely handicapped tomorrow….

And you’d think his race at Haydock over hurdles last month would have put him spot on for a big performance tomorrow. He ran with credit under a big weight off a lay off and I wonder how long connections have had this assignment in mind….

He’s drawn out wide – but plenty of horses have done well in this race over the years from where he starts tomorrow’s race. And in James Doyle he’s got a talented operator onboard to get him best-placed….

Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. Bet365, 888sport, Paddy Power & Betway are 1/5 the first 6…..

• In the Copper Horse – 6.10....

The 4yo horses dominate the betting in the Copper Horse at 6.10 over the 14f trip….

Cleveland is a worthy favourite. In my book his Chester Cup win in May is the best bit of form of any of these coming into tomorrow’s race. But bear in mind that race was over considerably further and if he’s to progress again here from a mark of 103 then he will need to do it with everything unfolding that bit quicker….

Pita Pinta has been building up a head of steam this term. But I wonder if the ground has gone against her. The same reservations about the ground apply to David O’Meara’s 6yo Get Shirty….

Juan De Montalban is interesting – having won at the track in decent style last month. But you can’t back them all and the one I’ve opted for in the end – in a race lacking obvious options at bigger prices – is Joseph O’Brien’s OKITA SOUSHI at the general 10s….

He made a very encouraging return at the Curragh last month – fitted with a first-time tongue-tie. He’d been off the track for 303 days but was plenty fit enough to beat 10 of his 11 rivals home….

The horse that beat him – Raise You – is also trained by Joseph O’Brien and is considered a Melbourne Cup possible. So it was no shabby effort from Okita Soushi who is lightly raced, open to improvement for that Curragh appearance, and liable to progress for the step up in trip tomorrow afternoon….

Each-way backers take note: It is 1/5 the first 5 generally….

• The final word….

That’s all for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the Day 2 handicaps….
 
Until then. Stay tuned – and enjoy the racing….

Against the Crowd