Thursday, 15th June 2022
Today is Day 3 at Royal Ascot – but we’re already ahead of the game here on ATC….
I always go out with my picks 24-hours ahead of time – in an effort to beat the market to the punch and to try and bag the best of the prices about my selections….
I sent out my advice for Day 3 of the meeting yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….
Today the focus is on tomorrow’s Day 4 card….
If Brilliant Light wins this for Saeed Bin Suroor and Danny Tudhope, then I might just burst into tears. He’s on a dangerous mark, he signalled a return to form and full fitness at Ripon, and he’s a big price….
But you can’t back them all and in a good race where plenty have chances, I’ve come down on the side of William Knight’s MOKTASAAB at the general 14s….
Connections paid 110,000 guineas for him back in October. He paid a bit of that back with a good big-field C4 handicap win at Newbury before following up at Goodwood in a mid-range C2 event – where he handled the idiosyncrasies of the track and won at a canter….
Up 5lbs for that win, he didn’t handle Epsom so well on his next assignment when sent in pursuit of his first proper big handicap pot – and sent off favourite – finishing 6th of the 14 and beaten 6-lengths….
But a below-par showing at that track – which doesn’t suit every horse – can be forgiven. Back on a more conventional right-hander tomorrow he can pick up where he left off at Goodwood and progress again….
He certainly won’t mind the fast going, he’s nicely drawn for a horse that likes to go forward and – the way he finished his race at Goodwood – the omens are fair that he’ll take to the 12f trip….
Each-way backers take note: bet365, Sky Bet and Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Charlie Fellowes, Hayley Turner, and Jamie Spencer each figure prominently in the recent history of the Sandringham….
Spencer won it in 2017 and 2018. Fellowes and Turner won it together in 2019 and 2020. This time around they might all have a hand in another winner in the shape of FRESH HOPE at 12s….
Spencer rode the New Approach filly on both runs this term – but Hayley Turner takes over riding duties tomorrow. Fresh Hope carries 8-06 – and that’s what’s likely instigated the change….
Spencer has done that weight before. But he doesn’t do it often and hasn’t done it since last September. His loss is Turner’s gain….
Fresh Hope is improving with each appearance she’s made. She’s still rated in the lows 80s – just like Fellowes’s previous winners of the race. And she certainly appreciates a quick surface….
Is it tempting fate to expect lightening to strike a third time? Probably. But Fellowes clearly knows how to get this job done and I expect another big performance from the yard’s participant….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. bet365, Paddy Power, Boylesports & Betway are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally….
SHAMLAAN is my pick at 20s for the 5f sprint for the 3yo’s that brings the curtain down on the Day 4 card….
He’s done brilliant for Kevin Philippart De Foy since joining him from David O’Meara’s yard – winning 3 of 5 and rising from 71 to 93 in the rankings….
And I don’t think he’s finished yet. He got beaten under a 6lb penalty at Chester on his last run – and a cursory reading of that performance might suggest he’s hit the ceiling. But I don’t think so….
He was 3rd of the 6 that ran and beaten 2.5 lengths on the day. The two that beat him home were drawn in the two inside stalls whilst he was drawn 5 and took a wider course. He didn’t help himself by not settling either….
The Chester race has been a decent guide to very good sprinters in the past – Copper Knight and Kachy coming out on top in previous editions….
And this year’s winner – Live In The Dream – might be pretty good too. Next time out he hit the frame in the Dash at Epsom before finding one too good in a Listed race at Sandown. His subsequent exploits add a bit of positive context to Shamlaan’s defeat….
Nymphadora finished with a rattle up the rail at Chester to deny Shamlaan 2nd place at the death that day. She reopposes tomorrow for Andrew Balding with top apprentice Harry Davies claiming 5lb – but I wonder if she’ll appreciate the quick ground as much as my man….
Shamlaan is drawn in stall 1. That might be a negative for some. But they’ve been winning and placing from all over the track in the big-field straight races over the first two days and my take is that if you’re fast enough, it doesn’t really matter where you start….
Each-way backers take note: bet365 are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Duke of Edinburgh (3.40 @ Ascot)….
In the Sandringham (5.00 @ Ascot)….
In the Palace of Holyroodhouse (6.10 @ Ascot)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. I’ll be back tomorrow with my take on the Day 5 handicaps….
Until then. Stay tuned – and enjoy the racing….
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