Wednesday, 22nd June 2022
Contrarianism is a central theme at ATC….
But it’s not always about betting differently than other punters. And it’s not always about the way you think.
Sometimes, it’s about the way you work….
Last week all attention was on Royal Ascot. And fair enough – there was a lot to focus on….
But on busy Festival weeks – when most punters ignore the minor meetings – it pays to keep your finger on the pulse….
Otherwise, you miss things – like Khanjar’s performance at Ripon on Wednesday….
He’s destined for quality handicaps after running out an impressive winner of the C3 Wells Memorial Challenge Trophy Handicap over 6f….
Berthed widest of the six runners, he wasn’t away perfectly under Dane O’Neill….
…. but he was dropped in; travelled nicely through the first half-mile; made headway at the 2-pole, got down to work when asked, asserted in the final furlong, and won sweetly –going away….
It was a 0-90 race but none of Khanjar’s opponents were rated higher than 83. Three were rated just 68, 72 and 79. So, it’s not the strongest race of its type you’ll see. But the optics were good….
…. and the horse that chased him home – the Michael Dods-trained filly Azure Blue (2lb well-in off 83) – had more experience and had won the time before at Hamilton….
…. the time before that she’d finished 5/22 in a C4 at York for 3yos rated up to 80. Plenty of punters took her out of that race as one to follow….
The winning distance at Ripon was 3-lengths. It could have been more. Khanjar gave the impression he’s still learning….
But once he took on Azure Blue at the furlong pole he put the race to bed swiftly – the rubberstamp on the performance….
Watch Paul Mulrennan and Azure Blue as Khanjar goes by. There’s no suggestion they’ll find the same gear he’s in and make a scrap of it. Once he hits the front, it’s over….
You can almost see Mulrennan decide not to knock his filly about – and to save her. She’s bumped into one as they say….
Khanjar is up 9lbs to 94 for the win and looks a 100+ horse in waiting….
Trainer William Haggas has a good record at Ripon. He’s sent 129 horses to the track since 2009 and banked 46 winners @ 35.7% – well in advance of his 21.6% overall ratio across the same period....
So it’s no surprise to see a Haggas up at Ripon. But I wonder if the race was part of a wider plan – rather than a smash and grab raid for £8k….
Might Khanjar turn up in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood? Wednesday’s race gave him experience of the type of undulations he’d find in Sussex….
He’s only a 3yo, of course. And with just four races under his belt he’s very inexperienced. No horse has won the Stewards’ in the last 20-years having had fewer than six races….
But three 3yo horses have won the race in the last seven years. And Haggas has won it twice – so he knows what’s required. And he placed with 3yo Raucous back in 2016….
All that said on a mark of 94 he’d have only just scraped into last season’s renewal….
Perhaps the plan is to run him again – and to go up again. Or perhaps the Stewards’ Sprint – the consolation race – is the plan. Or maybe it isn’t Goodwood at all but the 3yo handicap over 6f at Newmarket next month that Blackrod won last year….
Who knows? Like a mad dog I might be barking up the wrong trees….
But Khanjar is rated 94 now – and he must go somewhere. He still gets in the 0-95 races – so maybe the big Open races will come later. We’ll see….
Whatever he does next, he’s very much on the up and no doubt being prepared to land a big handicap pot before moving on to better things….
That C4 handicap at York in May– the one in which Azure Blue finished 5th – is working out well….
Azure Blue won at Hamilton next time. Devaste has won since. Latin Lover scored his second subsequent win at Ascot last week….
The winner of the York race (Showtime Mahomes – put up 5lb to 82) was plenty fancied in the Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap back at York next time out….
I’m not sure he looked like the winner when squeezed between two horses and deprived of crucial momentum – which pretty much ended his race….
But he surely has more to come off 82 given that Latin Lover – who he beat 2 lengths in receipt of a pound – is now rated 89….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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