Thursday, 22nd June 2022
A big field is a consistent feature of Saturday’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle….
There hasn’t been an edition of the race in the last 20 years with fewer than 16 horses breaking from the stalls….
Of course, it’s a different race now than it was – with the last six renewals run on tapeta rather than turf….
And that’s a bit of a messer for the stat bods. Six races is not much of a sample to work with….
But when you factor in three 19+ runner fields in the Northumberland Vase since 2016 – the consolation race run over course and distance earlier the same afternoon – one thing is immediately evident….
The draw plays a significant role in the outcome of these big-field 2m handicap races on this Newcastle card….
Let me make one thing clear at the outset – it’s not impossible to win the Plate or a big-field edition of the Vase from a low stall….
Zeeband won last year’s 19-runner Vase from stall 2. Antiquarium won the 2016 edition of the Plate from stall 3. And Who Dares Wins won the 2019 Plate from stall 7….
But the other 6 winners emerged from double-figure stalls….
And when you take the placed horses into consideration (I include 5th place in 20+ runner races) the advantage of a high starting berth becomes clearer still….
…. with 22 of the 31 horses that hit the frame in either race also starting in a double-figure stall….
Looking at the stalls in clusters, win & place strike rates look like this….
I don’t think the numbers could be any clearer. With 4 wins and 13 placers from 44 runners and a total place strike rate of 38.6% – the top 5 stalls are the daddy stalls….
…. and the total place strike rates drops the further down the stall bands you go – with stalls 1 to 5 producing a rate of just 11%....
Expressed as Impact Values – the numbers looks like this….
In layman’s terms stalls 16 to 20 have a 70% better record of placing than chance would dictate….
And if we look at the percentage of opponents beaten by horses running from each band of stalls….
…. we find that horses running out of the top band of stalls have beaten almost 60% of their opponents as opposed to the 38.7% beaten by horses running out of the bottom band….
The conclusion is straightforward. Advantage increases the higher you are in the stalls….
The draw is but one feature of the Northumberland Plate – albeit a significant one….
Looking at results across the last 20-years there are additional pointers that you might use to slice and dice the field….
Horses older than 6 have an unappealing record. 16 of the last 20 renewals were won by horses aged between 4 and 6….
You want a horse proven at 12f+. And by proven I mean winning form. 19 of the last 20 winners ticked that box. And 15 of that 19 had registered a win at 14f and further....
Withhold won the 2018 edition of the race off a break of 259 days. But that performance was a significant trend-buster. The other 19 winners had all raced at some point within the previous 8-weeks....
Good form is a significant plus coming into the race. 19 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 5 last time out – and 16 of those had finished in the first 3....
The historic record doesn’t offer a tremendous volume of cast-iron pointers. But there’s a little to work with there that might prove of some assistance….
The money has spoken a bit of sense more years than not – with 7 of the last 10 editions of the race falling to one of the top two in the betting at the off....
Last year was a total aberration with Nicholas T winning at 33s for Jim Goldie – and being followed home by horses sent off at 28s, 16s and 16s….
Since 2016 – when the race moved to the AW track – 2 winners and 8 placers were sent off at 16s or bigger. All bar one started the race in stall 14 or higher….
In this race a big price from a favoured stall is no bad contrarian strategy for punters who like to swing the bat….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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