Friday, 24th June 2022
Trueshan is a G1 horse in a handicap in tomorrow’s Northumberland Plate (3.30) at Newcastle – no doubt….
But he’s up against it off an official rating of 120 under a welter burden of 10-8 – and conceding 19lb+ to every opponent in the 20-runner field….
He’s not got the worst of the draw in stall 10. But he is having his first run since early April and trainer Alan King appears to be using this race as something of a prep for the Goodwood Cup – just as he did last year….
Trueshan was 6th of 20 and beaten 3.75 lengths in this race last June off a mark of 118. Off 2lbs higher still tomorrow, he’ll certainly need to produce a career best to win. It’s not impossible – but he’s short enough at the 7s….
Onesmoothoperator has a big chance for Brian Ellison under Ben Robinson – who won the race on Nicholas T for Jim Goldie last year….
He’s got some decent form in the book over course and distance. And you can dismiss his stone-last finish at York on seasonal debut. He was running on turf for the first time, on ground that was too fast and at level weights against higher-rated horses….
The draw’s been kind to him. He’ll start from stall 17. Earlier in the week I highlighted the top band of stalls as the right place to be in this race since the first running on tapeta….
Brian Ellison had the Plate in mind when the horse was bought and it’s one of Ellison’s ambitions to win the race. He’s come close before and he’s in the game again with the 4yo – but again the 7s is short enough….
Rainbow Dreamer is interesting at 12s. He was 5th and beaten 2.5 lengths in the 2020 edition of this race off a mark of 107 and was beaten in the race off 110 last year….
He runs off 98 tomorrow and if his recent wind-op has helped him then he is rated to go close. As a 9yo he won’t be improving but a competitive mark and a high draw might well combine to see him to best effect….
Of course, you can’t back them all and the one carrying my dollar will be Andrew Balding’s SPIRIT MIXER at the generals 9s….
He’s in the form of his life right now. Earlier in the season he won three on the bounce and he’s risen in the handicap from 79 to 97 since seasonal debut in late April….
The big money win hasn’t happened yet though. He was sent to Chester last time – where he tackled the 2m trip for the first time – in a race for £31k where he was sent off favourite….
It didn’t happen. He never got any cover from a wide draw. He was four horses wide on the turn for home and covered more ground in the race than any other runner. It all conspired to get him beat 3.25 lengths….
He could well have been expected that day and rewatching the Chester race it’s easy to see how he might have turned out the winner had things fallen differently. He’s still got more to come off 97….
I know there’ll be a few readers up in arms that I’m backing one in a single-figure stall. But the ones I fancy drawn high are short enough and the ones I don’t I don’t….
I’m opting to go with an in-form horse with more to come – whether not he needs to overcome stall 8….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill and Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. bet365 are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
SMART CHAMPION is a strong stayer whose been running in races lacking pace.
If tomorrow’s big field go hard early then it might well set up the finish for a horse that will stick on as well as any other at the end of a tough 2-miles….
David Simcock’s charge has a couple of things going for him at the general 12s….
For a start he’s nicely handicapped on his best form off tomorrow’s mark of just 82….
He’s dropped to that mark on the back of a long sequence of losses. But he heads into the race a pound below his last winning mark – and that last win was secured over tomorrow’s course and distance….
And the draw has been kind. He’ll start from stall 17. A high draw is a big advantage in these big-field races over 2-miles at Newcastle….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
TOMMY DE VITO could run better than his price tag of 10s suggests in tomorrow’s C2 6f sprint at Newcastle….
He’s very lightly raced for a 5yo and went well first time up at Kempton in March – overcoming the widest stall….
He was out wide again at Lingfield next time and never managed to get into it. Next time at Doncaster he was running on turf – which doesn’t appear to be his preferred surface – and trying the 7f trip for the first time. It didn’t work out….
Tomorrow’s he back over 6f on an AW track where his form figures read: 21. For sure, those performances were produced at C6 & C4 level. Plenty more will be required tomorrow….
But he clearly likes the place, he’s nicely handicapped on a mark of 88, he’s lightly-raced, he’s still open to loads of progression and in Tom Marquand he’s got the assistance of a top-drawer rider….
It would be no surprise to see him bounce back with a strong performance and the price is worth swinging at….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 and 1/4 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Northumberland Plate (3.30 @ Newcastle)….
In the Northumberland Vase (2.55 @ Newcastle)….
In the Pertemps Network Handicap (1.50 @ Newcastle)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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