Tuesday, 5th July 2022
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Before we crack on with racing business – a quick bit of important housekeeping that my publisher has asked me to tell you about today….
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We have a big week ahead….
The 3-day July meeting at Newmarket gets underway on Thursday afternoon. Day 1 delivers a 6f handicap for the 3yos….
On Friday – Day 2 – the Newmarket meeting produces a 10f handicap for the 3yos as well as the bet365 Trophy over the 14f….
But it’s on Saturday afternoon when things get really crazy….
At Newmarket, the handicap features are the bet365 Mile Handicap – another one for the 3yos – and the Bunbury Cup over the 7f trip….
Up at York, we’ve got the John Smith’s Cup over the 10f trip – and there might be a decent field going to post for a mile handicap a little earlier on the card….
And Ascot gets in on the act too – with the Betfred Heritage Handicap over the 5f trip….
Talk about a Super Saturday….
One thing is for certain: there will be no shortage of betting options for big-field handicap punters this week….
My mission in the big handicaps is always to dig-out ‘live’ contenders trading at wrong prices....
If I do that job effectively over the long-term, the winners take care of themselves....
So, how do you find ‘live’ contenders at the wrong prices? That’s the million-dollar question....
Every race is unique. There’s no one element of voodoo that works the magic every time. Every punter has his own way of doing things....
Me? I take each race on its own merits. I study the runners and riders – from multiple angles – and I see what jumps out at me....
It’s a time consuming process – and that’s probably why most punters don’t bother with the ‘homework’ aspect of the game....
No problem. Each to his own. My way isn’t the only way, after all....
Another way to play the races is to find an angle of approach that will put you into play across a series of races – rather than just one….
And by qualified angle – I mean one with a history of producing....
It’s time to put my money where my mouth. Gun-to-head now – here’s an angle to consider for the July meeting at Newmarket this week....
When someone puts a gun to your head for racing information that will pay – it’s handy to have informed opinions, angles or strategies rooted in fact....
Sometimes, an angle is all facts-based….
Sometimes it is largely facts – but facts with a bit of intuitive reasoning or speculation (potentially more unreliable, of course) built in....
My angle for Newmarket is one former and it is this: Support horses trained by Andrew Balding in the handicaps exclusively for 3yo horses....
Balding has a fantastic record in the handicaps for 3yos run at the July meeting – a record that demands respect and makes it a matter of folly to ignore the qualifying runners he sends this time round….
His record from 2006+ at Newmarket’s July meeting in such races stands as follows….
His last 34 qualifiers produced seven winners @ 20.5%. An additional eight of those 34 horses hit the frame – which amounts to a total place strike rate of 44.1%....
Had you backed all Balding’s qualifying runners since the 2006 July meeting (to the tune of 1pt e/w to level-stakes) profits would currently stand at 60 points….
Balding has been a solid call for punters in this specific group of races. The prices about his runners have been very attractive – and performance has significantly and consistently outstripped price….
And remember: the recorded profits are to returned SPs. Chances are that in the early-morning markets, on the exchanges or betting to Betfair SP, you’d be looking at a much-improved surplus....
These numbers go beyond anything that might be considered anomalous. They grow out of intention. Balding clearly aims his young handicappers at these races – and is effective at getting performances from them when he does….
If Balding has decent 3yo handicappers in his care – this July meeting at Newmarket is one he has targeted effectively with such horses in previous seasons. It’s reasonable to anticipate that this year will be no different….
Of course, the past is the past. And what happened before is no cast-iron guarantee that it will happen again….
Stats and numbers in the record books don’t run races. Horses do. And Balding needs the right horses this time round….
What his 3yo handicappers of yesteryear achieved at the meeting must be replicated by the current population. It isn’t the same set of animals turning out year on year in the exact same circumstances….
But if the stats are omens then the omens are at least good. They tell us that when Balding has a decent 3yo handicapper in his care, this is a meeting he likes to target for a win….
And when his qualifying runners haven’t managed to win or place, plenty more have put in competitive performances suggesting they’ve been primed and prepared to go-well….
Outside of the wins and places already reported, four more of Balding’s 34 qualifying horses since 2006 produced 5th (x3) and 6th (x1) placed horses in fields of 19 and 20 runners. In other words, they ran very well….
The man has been ultra-competitive with his 3yo handicappers – and it’s reasonable to anticipate that this year will be no different….
If Balding is in possession of some decent 3yo handicappers on potentially good marks – he will have prepared them for a serious tilt at this week’s prizes. His past record suggests he will make a good job of that preparation….
It’s a good thing to know. Something to be aware of when you come to look at the 3yo handicaps. A Balding runner at a nice price might just be exactly what the doctor ordered….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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