Wednesday, 6th July 2022
A change to the Order of Play this week – for the July meeting at Newmarket….
I’ll be in your inbox with my picks in the valuable big-field handicaps on the morning of the races I’m targeting – rather than the day before….
That means my thoughts on tomorrow afternoon’s Bet Boost at bet365 Handicap – a race for the 3yos over the 6f trip – will be with you tomorrow morning at about 8.30….
And then so on – through to Saturday morning for Saturday afternoon’s big races. Of which there are several….
This morning, the focus is on handlers with the strongest track records in the handicaps run at Newmarket’s July meeting….
Yesterday, I mentioned Andrew Balding and his record in the 3yo handicaps. But he’s not the only name to be conscious of heading into this week’s meeting. But before I get to the others – some context….
Since 2009 there have been 126 handicaps run at the July meeting – won by 52 different trainers….
In other words, no individual dominates. No small group of yards dominate. And you wouldn’t expect it to be any other way….
After all, we’re not dealing with Premiership football here – where 9 times out of 10 the title is won by one of a small group of teams….
No. We’re dealing instead with horse racing and handicaps – a much more unpredictable arena….
As rich and as powerful and as well-endowed with talent as any individual yard might be – across a single season or a single decade – handicaps are designed to give everybody a chance….
Handicaps are races that just about anybody can win – if in possession of the right horse on the right day and if everything falls into place….
And plenty of trainers have had that one right day in a handicap at the July meeting over the last 12 years….
But having one or two such winners and making a habit of winning such races are two very different things….
Of the 52 winning trainers in our 126 handicaps, 28 won just one such race apiece….
That’s more than 50% of the 52 winners. And a few other handlers won just two of the 126 races….
Some of those trainers haven’t had many qualifying runners. Others fired plenty of bullets before hitting the target….
Some of the one-time winners are big names – like Alan King, Roger Charlton, and Sir Mark Prescott….
Others wining trainers were strictly small-timers having a rare day in the spotlight….….
Of course, one or two of those one-time or two-time winners might find the right day again this week. There’s no way of knowing for sure….
This is handicap racing. It goes its own way. Anything can happen. That’s how the handicaps are set-up. It can all seem pretty random….
But the data – as random as it might seem at first glance – can give us some important steers….
The trainers I’m most interested in are those with a record of targeting the handicaps at this specific meeting with a volume of runners….
…. and with a track record of producing winners and placers more frequently than the rest….
There’s no great revelation in any of this. It’s straightforward logic….
Handicaps are not easy to win. We’ve seen that….
…. and trainers with a consistently strong record in handicap races at a specific meeting are clearly targeting those races – on a serial basis – with well-prepared horses on competitive marks….
Performance figures don’t lie. All yards have bits of good fortune along the way – and sometimes wins occur as a result of happenstance within races….
But no yard gets so lucky as to sustain high-level win and place figures at a specific meeting without direction, intent and skilled management being part of the equation. No chance. It simply doesn’t happen….
So – on that basis – the handlers in the table below leap out of the wider dataset on the basis of their performance and sustained competitivity in handicaps run at the July meeting….
…. and – for my money – these are the yards whose horses are worthy of the closest scrutiny ahead of this week’s handicap races (ranked by total place strike rate percentage)….
Does this information lead directly to winners? No, of course not. If only the game were that easy….
But it is handicap-specific data that you won’t find in the Racing Post or any other mainstream publication – where the emphasis and focus will be very much on the big pattern races set to be run this week….
And – that being the case – the data offers a steer that most of the people you are betting against won’t be aware of….
Perhaps none of these five trainers will have a handicap winner this week – or even a placer. That’s entirely possible – and a scenario that fits perfectly with Sod’s law….
But the historic record suggests that’s unlikely….
…. and – if history is any guide at all – at the very least you can expect these guys to be turning up with handicappers that are readied to give a competitive account of themselves….
And – in handicaps – that’s as good a starting point for analysis as any other….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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