Dark horses on Day 1 at Newmarket....

Thursday, 7th July 2022

Dark horses on Day 1 at Newmarket….

The right horses are at the top of the market for this afternoon’s Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap (3.00) at Newmarket – based on what we’ve seen most recently….

William Haggas has a strong record in the handicaps at this meeting – and in Khanjar he fields a progressive horse that will likely turn out to be pattern class in time….

The Kodiac gelding is up 9lb for his win on handicap debut at Ripon last time – his first run since being gelded. The manner in which he won suggests he will cope with the rise – but this will be a different test of his mettle….

If Ingra Tor replicates his effort at Newmarket in April where he found just Harry Three too good – that one’s a subsequent York winner now rated 107 – would see him in the mix….

But he threw in a wrong ‘un last time at York – which connections could offer no explanation for. He’ll need to bounce back from that….

Le Beau Garcon has also seen money. Things weren’t straightforward for him on seasonal debut Musselburgh….

He started on the inside rail, met trouble, was switched to the other side of the track, and had to come from a long way back – but he was still good enough to finish 2nd behind a horse that was always up at the front end….

There’s much more to come from him – but he’s out of the handicap which won’t help and this is his first go at the 6f trip….

They’re the market fancies – and easy to make a case for. But my job is not to run with the crowd. My job is to dig out a dark horse that can out-perform market expectations and give punters a run for their money at a price….

• Two against the field….

Karl Burke’s AASSER has gone up 5lbs for two gritty efforts over turning 7f trips where he found one too good each time….

Last time at Ayr he got beat in first-time cheekpieces. They’ve been discarded this afternoon and replaced with a first-time visor….

That headgear combined with a return to a straight 6f (just his second go without a bend) suggests connections are fine-tuning his set-up in a bid to land a decent pot….

A mark of 90 is certainly not beyond him – and the booking of William Buick ranks as a plus on a track where he operates at 24% over the last 5-years….

The 14s is fair enough about a horse whose been in a good vein of form without quite managing to strike….

I want to be two-against-the-field in this tough betting heat and a good show in a big-field handicap at this level last time is a big plus for ADMIRAL D – who can be backed at 16s this morning….

He looked very promising at Naas on his last assignment for Michael O’Callaghan in a juvenile handicap in Ireland at the back end of last term….

Since then he’s had two runs for new trainer Richard Fahey and the latest of those at York – where he finished 6th of 19 beaten 4.5 lengths in a C2 handicap worth £50k to the winner – was a promising effort at a big price….

He outran an SP of 40s – a price most likely based on a bit of no-show on British debut over 7f the time before – and showed a willingness that suggests there is more to come off a mark in the low 90s (he’s dropped a handy 4lbs since joining Fahey)….

That’s the kind of race that seasons a horse and the experience will come in handy this afternoon against a number of opponents yet to be tested in such demanding circumstances. He’s a fair price with that experience under his belt….

I’m backing both horses to win. If you like to play one each-way then stick with the Fahey horse at the bigger price…..

Each-way backers take note: You can get 1/5 the first 6 with William Hill, bet365, Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power & Betway….

• The final word….

That’s all for today. Back tomorrow morning….

Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd