Friday, 8th July 2022
Another 2nd yesterday – with Admiral D chasing home Lethal Levi in the 6f handicap for the 3yos….
I don’t know what’s worse – finding just one too good or finishing down the field….
Probably the latter. But both outcomes feel as bad as one another sometimes – especially when you’re in need of a winner….
That said all you can do is smile and move on. When they don’t convert they don’t convert – and that’s that. Banging my head against a brick wall won’t help….
Interesting comments afterwards from winning trainer Karl Burke. He said he’d fancied his other runner – my other pick Aasser – more….
When even the trainers don’t know what’s what, it’s a reminder that you have to be crackers to be playing the big-field handicap game in the first place….
But crackers we are and play it we do. On to Day 2….
The bet365 Trophy at 3.00 doesn’t have a long history but none of the four winners to date had run more than seven times….
If you use that pointer as your chopping block then it doesn’t leave too many candidates in this season’s edition but two of them – Candleford and Trawlerman – head the betting this morning….
Candleford was deeply impressive when putting a big field to the sword in the Duke of Edinburgh at the Royal meeting – but the William Haggas-trained gelding must overcome a 13lb rise here and steps up to the 14f trip for the first time….
Trawlerman runs for John Gosden and was sent off favourite for Candleford’s race at Royal Ascot – under-performing on the day. He swerved the Old Newton Cup on Saturday on account of the ground and today’s race – where he too steps up to the 14f trip for the first time – is clearly Plan B….
As a committed contrarian and backer of dark horses, I can’t have either runner. I want something at a more attractive price….
And in a race where there’s a big spread at the weights, I want something towards the lower end of the handicap – and I find myself siding with Hugo Palmer for the second time this afternoon….
His ZOFFEE won the Northumberland Vase relatively comfortably last time and on a mark of 90 – he’s up 6lbs – there could still be more to come from a versatile dual-code performer….
He’s not as exposed as some of his opponents this afternoon, he’s clearly in good heart right now and he likes quick ground….
Frankie Dettori is an interesting choice to replace Ben Curtis who has the ride on the more fancied Contact….
Dettori certainly isn’t a regular acceptor of rides at 8-09 but does it twice this afternoon – on Zoffee and on Knightswood for Mark Johnston in the 1.50. You’d think he fancies one or both….
The 11s available about Zoffee this morning is a fair price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, William Hill & bet365 are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Twelves 3yos go to post for the bet365 Handicap over the 10f trip at 1.50 – and pretty much all of them are open to improvement and progression….
The right horse – New London – heads the market. He was a fancy for the Derby at one stage having beaten the easy subsequent Golden Gates winner Missed The Cut 9l as a novice….
They were juveniles then, of course. And water has passed under the bridge. But given Missed The Cut is now rated 108, you’d expect New London to have something left in the tank off 99….
Golden Horn colt Yonafis – representing William Haggas – is interesting first-time up at the 10f trip….
…. and Knightswood with Franke Dettori booked – the pair have seen money overnight – runs for Mark Johnston whose won this race six times in the last decade….
That’s where the money is. As a dark horse backer I must look elsewhere and NOLTON CROSS is the one I’m opting for at this morning’s general 14s….
He ran no kind of race at Epsom last time. Silvestre De Sousa didn’t help – putting up 2lb overweight. Then the horse failed to settle in the rear – having previously raced prominently. And he never seemed comfortable on the track….
Newmarket will suit better. Pace horses have a good record there – and you’d think that will inspire a return to previous front-running tactics the horse is clearly more comfortable with….
On a mark of 80 there’s loads more to come from Nolton Cross. He saw money at Epsom. It didn’t go right that day. But he can redeem himself this afternoon….
Each-way backers take note: It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps this afternoon…. In the bet365 Trophy (3.00 @ Newmarket)….
In the bet365 Handicap (1.50 @ Newmarket)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow morning….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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