Thursday, 28th July 2022
Nothing could live with Charlie Appleby’s New London in the bet365 Handicap at Newmarket earlier this month….
Once a serious fancy for the Derby he looked like the proverbial Group horse in a handicap….
The form is yet to be seriously tested – but the performance looked plenty good enough and the 3yo son of Dubawi gets the chance to successfully make the step up to Group level in this afternoon’s Gordon Stakes at Goodwood….
Before that – at 1.50 – one of the horses New London beat that last day at Newmarket faces off with 12 rivals in the Kincsem Handicap for 3yo horses over the 10f trip….
Stablemate NATURAL WORLD finished 4th of the 12 that day beaten 5.25 lengths by the classy winner – but just 2.25 lengths by the 2nd horse….
He’d been contesting Listed races in early May but had been off for 7 weeks ahead of the Newmarket assignment – having been gelded in the meantime….
And I’m not sure he was necessarily expected at Newmarket. For one connections would have known full well just how good New London is….
And on top of that they knew that Natural World wasn’t quite at the top of his game. Ahead of the race jockey James Doyle was clear that the horse would come on for the run….
All things taken together he didn’t produce a bad performance that day – and I reckon he’s a bigger player this afternoon than the general 16s about him allows for….
Yes, he’s rated 102. He’ll carry top weight and there are plenty of unexposed and progressive rivals taking him on this afternoon – some a fair way beneath him on the rating scale….
But the likes of Vee Sight, Migdam, Asaassi and stablemate Warren Point have already been found in the market and it’s not my role to merely regurgitate what the money is already telling you loud and clear….
I merely take it upon myself to dig out one that can go well at the bigger quotes – and Natural World fits the bill….
And – whilst I’m talking about how progressives some of his rivals might turn out to be – let’s not overlook the fact that Natural World has only had four runs himself and just one of those in a handicap….
He’s not exactly fully exposed himself and the addition of a first-time hood to his race set-up might just be the variable that draws out further progression. He’s a big price at the 16s….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill, bet365, Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
I looked both long and hard at Kape Moss for the World Pool Handicap over 5f at 4.45….
Trainer David Loughnane reckons this one can earn a bit of black type – but that doesn’t really tally with a working mark of 77….
I don’t know how right Loughnane will turn out to be but I suspect off her current mark she could prove a stone and more ahead of the handicapper in time….
But the yard form worries me – Loughnane hasn’t had a winner in more than 6 weeks and 50 runners. Walbank ran well for the yard yesterday but on balance I’ve opted for SHAMLAAN at 10s….
Like Kape Moss he’s got a useful bit of form over track and trip – and that experience will come in handy. He’s also been running in deeper races than the Loughnane horse – something else in his favour….
He’s not managed to go in again in four runs since his Goodwood victory – but has had mitigation on each occasion. He was beaten by the draw at Royal Ascot, I’m not sure Chester suits and he’s been beaten by older horses the last twice….
Back up against his own age group at a track that he handles – and having had a bit more seasoning than the opposition – he can go well at a double-figure price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps this afternoon…. In the Kincsem Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood)….
In the World Pool Handicap (4.45 @ Goodwood)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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