Friday, 29th July 2022
The draw looks set to play a big part in the outcome of this afternoon’s Golden Mile at Goodwood (3.00)….
A maximum field of 20 goes to post and punters should be aware that 7 of the last 8 winners of the race started in stall 5 or lower….
That’s a dagger to the heart for supporters of Jimi Hendrix, for example – drawn all the way out in stall 21….
Not that it’s put the market off. He’s still in the top half dozen in the betting at a general 10s….
But – as much as I like him (this column was on him at Royal Ascot when he placed off a mark of 87) – I can’t be having him at that price….
The William Haggas trained Montassib had his supporters this week too. He was up at 17/2 – outright 3rd in the betting….
But he was pulled from the race yesterday – officially on account of the quick going. But I wonder how much the draw – he was drawn in stall 16 – had to do with it….
After all, quick ground didn’t seem to inconvenience him too much at Newmarket last time. Perhaps they’re saving him for a day when circumstances are more in his favour….
Rebel Territory is a horse of interest to me….
I was taken with his performance at Sandown in May and I put him up for the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot – where he was declared a non-runner….
I think he’s got a big handicap pot in him. But I wonder if today is that day. His season hasn’t gone quite to plan, he’s been off for 64 days and I wonder if he might just need this afternoon’s race….
In the end I haven’t had to agonize over it. He’s up at a general 9s, he’s been well enough-found by the market, and I can happily let him run without my dollar in his saddlebag at that price….
The one I want to back at the prices is Karl Burke’s EILEAN DUBH who could be underestimated at this morning general 16s….
He’s had a progressive time of it this season at the mile trip – winning 4 from 6 and rising from 77 on the rating scale to 95….
You could make the argument that he’s done his winning this term. And fair enough….
But the manner of his win last time at Newmarket suggested there is more to come yet and running under a 3lb penalty this afternoon means he’s effectively running off 93 – and is 2lb well in. It all helps….
He hasn’t run at Goodwood but he has won on the undulations up at Hamilton and the track could well suit him this afternoon. He’s certainly drawn where you want to be draw and that’s going to be a big advantage at the price….
Each-way backers take note: William Hill & Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
Earlier on this afternoon’s card there are plenty of strong stayers – as you’d expect – in the Goodwood Handicap at 1.50 where 15 got to post over the 2m4f trip….
But punters will have to take it on trust that some of today’s runners will see out what is an extreme distance on the flat….
It’s a funny race with three horses a long way out of the handicap – and the market is tight with six of the other 12 runners trading at 9s or lower….
Zoffee ran well from me last time at Newmarket having won the Northumberland Vase over 2m the time before at Newcastle – and he’s up at 17/2….
He’s one of those that’s never done today’s trip. But that’s not why I’m deserting him in favour of Andrew Balding’s MELLOW MAGIC – who can be backed this morning at 8s….
Mellow Magic has never done the trip either. But he’s the better handicapped of the two horses now – and that’s what tips the balance.
In the Vase at Newcastle Mellow Magic was beaten 2.75 lengths into 3rd by Zoffee. Mellow Magic was rated 82 and Zoffee was rated 84. This afternoon Zoffee runs off 92 whilst Mellow Magic runs off just 84….
Mellow Magic had a nice primer in and egg and spoon race at Chester last time – she’s got a bit of Goodwood form in the book – and I expect her to be spot on for this tilt at a decent pot….
Each-way backers take note: Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps this afternoon…. In the Golden Mile (3.00 @ Goodwood)….
In the Goodwood Handicap (1.50 @ Goodwood)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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