Tuesday, 9th August 2022
The Great St Wilfrid at Ripon is the feature betting event for handicap fans this weekend….
We’ll get to that on Friday – along with any other Saturday races worth targeting….
Right now I want to focus attention on a trainer of great interest in the handicaps at next week’s Ebor meeting at York….
…. one who despite his many achievements still flies under the market radar to some extent….
And I’m not talking about William Haggas….
At some point this weekend you’ll read about Haggas in connection with the Ebor meeting….
He has Yorkshire connections that lazy journalists like to make a big deal about. They describe him as a man who enjoys the Northern air….
And they like to paint a fairy tale picture of him heading up the M1– flat cap strapped to his head, white rose in his lapel and whippet in tow – and cleaning up as though through some ancient ancestral right….
Of course, it’s garbage. Haggas likes Yorkshire – and I like the place myself. But he doesn’t target big races at the track because he likes the air….
He does it because he finds those big races easier to win than big races at Ascot or Goodwood….
Racing – like all sport – is more about pragmatics than poetry. But poetry and mythology help journalists and pundits fill space and airtime….
Don’t get me wrong. Haggas does like to saddle winners at the Ebor meeting….
But last year’s return was poor – zero winners from 18 runners. And 2020 wasn’t much better – 22 runners producing just a single winner….
For sure, the overall record from 2009 reads better – with 22 winners from 148 runners @ 14.8%....
But you wouldn’t have won any money backing all those runners on the nose to level stakes….
Instead – you’d have lost 3-points. Results across the last two years have obliterated historic profits….
On the upside – if you’re an optimist – you might think Haggas is ‘due.’ You might buy into the idea of a reversion to a better return this time around. And good luck to you….
But what I’m looking for ahead of the meeting is a man who can get the business done – from off the radar – in the multiple big handicaps run at the meeting….
And Haggas isn’t that handler....
If we split his figures, you’ll see what I mean….
He does get handicap winners – his last 77 qualifiers produced seven winners and 13 placers. And that’s a solid record....
But the downside is the prices. All the winners were fancied and firmly on the market radar – sent off at single-figure SPs….
Twelve of the 13 placers were sent off at single figures too. Even the two that weren’t were sent off at 11s and 12s – not exactly massive….
Haggas has gone well across the long-term at the Ebor meeting. He’s up there with the top boys in the handicaps….
But there is no meat on the bone for a value hunting dog like me....
And that trend runs true in most recent times (2016+) in all C2 handicaps run at York – not just those at the Ebor meeting….
The bare figures for Haggas within those parameters read as follows….
Not bad figures. Better than most. But only one winner and four placers were sent off at double figure prices (and two of those were 10s and 11s)….
What I’m looking for next week are trainers who target the best handicaps run at York effectively – without having to send five-dozen horses every year....
And – call me greedy – but I want a trainer who can produce that effective performance with horses sent off at prices sufficient to produce long-term betting profit....
One man has a profile and record of performance that fits the bill: Durham-based Michael Dods....
Since the start of the 2016 season, nobody has done as much with so little in the C2 handicaps run at York (not just those run at the Ebor meeting).
His figures tell the story more eloquently than I can put into words….
Backing all the qualifiers on the nose would have delivered a betting profit of 41 points – and that’s at SP. No doubt better prices were available early-doors and on the exchanges....
If we look specifically at C2 handicap run at the Ebor meeting over the last 13-years – as far back as my immediate data allows – the numbers paint another encouraging picture….
Eight winners and nine placers from 32 runners equates to a total place strike rate of 53.1% – a big number in any context….
Three winners were sent off at 14s and eight placers were returned at double-figure prices….
Betting profits amount to 48 points if all runners were backed to win at SPs. And with placers going in at 12s to 33s there have been abundant each-way profits too….
Of course, stats are just stats and what happened in the past is no guarantee that it will happen again next week....
But the record reveals a performance consistent enough to suggest Dods will send out more competitive runners in the handicaps next week – runners that can out-perform big prices....
His runners certainly merit the once-over even if you don’t want to take the plunge and bet them blind....
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
Operated by Spa Publishing Group Ltd (Company No. 15830286) 
