Thursday, 18th August 2022
There’s a bit of rain forecast over the track at York tonight – but no biblical deluge. Tomorrow is set to be dry and sunny – mixed with cloudy spells….
It all adds up to a scenario that will see racing take place on decent ground on Day 3….
At least that’s how it looks from where I’m sitting right now….
The last 10 renewals of this were won by eight 4yos and a brace of 5yos – numbers that will surely encourage trend punters to draw a line through anything older….
But they don’t call me a contrarian for nothing – and at 16s Tim Easterby’s 6yo DARK JEDI is a nice price for a battle-hardened veteran of the top-level big-field handicap game – and a horse that hit the frame in the last two editions of this race….
I can’t make the case that his mark of 98 is lenient. But he’s in good form this term and he’s been competitive enough off 97 on his last two goes….
They were both over 14f. He drops back to 12f here – but I’m not concerned about that. He gets the 14f well – but I think he’s a bit better over this shorter trip….
He can run another good one and – with Sky Bet paying out on 7 places and other bookies paying out on 6 – he’s a decent punt for punters who want to back just one horse each way….
My preference is to be two-against-the-field – backing both horses to win and foregoing the opportunity to play for the place money….
The other one I want to be with is John Butler’s FARHAN at the general 12s (there’s a bit of 14s about)….
He looked really progressive at the back end of last term – placing in the Old Rowley Cup (for 3yos) before winning the November Handicap in good style at Doncaster….
He threw in a clunker the last time he was seen at Hamilton in April. Perhaps he had a problem. But he’s had a good break, he goes well fresh and it’s an interesting comeback assignment for a horse with more to come off 93….
His two good performances at the back end of last term were produced on ground with cut. No doubt some punters will see that as an issue and it may well turn out he really does need the going description to contain the word ‘soft’….
But I’m not convinced of that at this point and I’m willing to give him the chance to prove me right. And – if tomorrow isn’t the day – I think this lad will produce compensation at some point in the later stages of this season….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. William Hill & Betway are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
I’m two-against the field in this one too – with BOLTHOLE (9s & 10s) & SYSTEM (12s)….
Michael Bell’s Bolthole ran a cracker at Goodwood last time – the form franked since by the 4th placed Dutch Decoy – over the 9f trip….
That might just have been a bit too far for him – his run petered out late after an eye-catching move into contention – and this drop back to the bare mile will be very much in his favour….
The fitting of a first-time tongue tie tomorrow suggests he was making some sort of a noise at Goodwood under Ryan Moore – and his performance might be marked-up on the back of that….
Jamie Spencer is back in the saddle tomorrow. He partnered the horse at Royal Ascot in the Britannia – when they were on the wrong part of the track. I like their chances of getting some redemption tomorrow….
System is up just 4lbs for her win last time out at Doncaster – where she travelled strongly in a big-field before sweeping through and finishing off well to win with a little in hand….
She’s run some decent races since midsummer and if she holds her form and progresses again then she can be involved at the business end tomorrow….
I know some readers think it’s a criminal offence to pick two horses in one race. I don’t get that point of view. But if you want to back just one then back System at the bigger price….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Sky Bet Handicap (1.50 @ York)….
In the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (5.20 @ York)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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