Friday, 19th August 2022
Paddy Twomey’s Earl of Tyrone heads the market for tomorrow’s Ebor (3.35) – and fair enough….
He’s bidding for a four-timer – having improved for each of his four runs since joining Twomey’s yard. He’s 1/1 at the trip – and completely unexposed at it….
You can get 6s and 11/2 about him this afternoon – and don’t let me stop you wading in….
But be warned – just one favourite won this race in the last 14 years. And the 4yo needs to overcome a single-figure starting berth – 16 of the last 20 winners started in stall 10 or bigger….
I thought long and hard about the two runners trained by William Haggas….
…. but Gaassee is already well-found in the betting….
…. and Candleford’s tendency to lug right – and his lack of racing experience on left-handed tracks – puts me off….
The one for me at the prices is David O’Meara’s GET SHIRTY at 16s….
That’s a big price about a horse in rude form that’s already won two big handicaps at Royal Ascot and Haydock this term – and who himself goes for a four-timer tomorrow….
Given that he’s rated 110 and carries top-weight tomorrow I guess some punters would argue that he’s done his winning for the time being – and that the handicapper has collared him….
I’m not so sure. He won comfortably the last time at Haydock off 105 – giving me the impression there’s more to come….
And a 10lb spread between top- and bottom-weights in this 24-runner contest will make his task easier than it might have been….
He’s drawn widest of all in stall 24. That might be seen as an issue. But the field gets a long run to the first bend and jockey Danny Tudhope will have a plan….
And it’s not like he’s a callow youth with no idea what to do. Tudhope placed on Monica Sheriff in 2020 from stall 21. And down the years plenty of horses have won and placed from the big-numbered stalls….
The bottom line is the price – and he’s quoted very generously….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 8. Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 7. You can get 1/5 the first 6 generally….
The Stewards’ Cup form is well-represented in the Constantine at 4.10….
The first five home that afternoon at Goodwood all turn out for this – with 3rd-placed Regional heading the betting while Commanche Falls is well-fancied to back up off 6lb higher….
Summerghand is turned round quickly after showing up well in last week’s Great St Wilfrid – despite racing on the ‘wrong’ side. Down another pound to 97 he’s dangerously well-handicapped and his time is surely coming….
But in a field packed with exposed sprinters that have been around the block time and again – I’m looking for something interesting at a price and I like the look of SALEYMM at the general 16s….
To date he’s been plying his trade on the track at a mile and 7f. Just two runs back he beat Northern Express over the 7f trip at York. Prior to that he’d finished 2nd in the Lincoln and 2nd in a decent 7f handicap at Newmarket….
So, it’s interesting that he’s trying 6f here – and it might just prove an inspired move….
Watch his Lincoln run again and you’ll see he took the field along at a fair clip that day – so much so hardly anything got into the race. He beat everything home but Johan– who outstayed him late on….
Silvestre De Sousa rode Johan at Doncaster – where he saw plenty of the Crisford horse. And De Sousa rode Saleymm in his recent win at York. Maybe he’s had say in the trip change. He’ll certainly get a say in the outcome – because he’s onboard tomorrow….
I’m swinging the bat here for sure. And it might just happen too quickly for the recently gelded 4yo over a sprint trip….
But it will be interesting to see just how fast he can go – under a forcing De Sousa ride – when conserving energy to stay 7f or 8f is a non-issue.
He’s an interesting participant – who will like the flat track – and I like the price….
Each-way backers take note: bet365 & Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. You can get 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Finally, in the Finale Handicap at 5.20 I’m with Richard Fahey’s SPIRIT DANCER at 7s….
His form figures over this track and trip read 5/13; 4/18, 4/22 and 1/5 – those last two performances produced within the last 6-weeks….
He’s up just 4lbs for that most recent win and he clearly likes this strip of turf at York. He’s in good heart right now and I anticipate another good run….
Each-way backers take note: Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. You can get 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my idea of the dark horses capable of running big races at tasty prices in the big handicaps tomorrow afternoon…. In the Ebor (3.35 @ York)….
In the Constantine (4.10 @ York)….
In the Finale (5.20 @ York)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time….
Meanwhile – enjoy the racing. It’s not life and death – it’s a game we play for fun. It’s good sometimes to remind ourselves of that fact….
Stay tuned.
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