Two dark horses for Friday at Donny....

Thursday, 8th September 2022

Two dark horses for Friday at Donny….

I couldn’t argue with anybody backing either Inchicore or Mahrajaan for tomorrow’s Mallard (1.25) at Doncaster….

Mahrajaan produced a career-best effort last month in a decent 12f handicap at York – in first time cheekpieces. The step back up to 14f will be no bother for him….

Inchicore also turns out boasting decent last time out handicap form – 4th of 17 and beaten 1.5 lengths in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock back at the beginning of July….

Good recent form in decent races – you can see why punters might latch on either horse in tomorrow’s contest. And plenty have – general quotes of 5s about both animals tell you that much….

Ryan Moore gets the leg-up on Alan King’s Inchicore for the first time tomorrow. That’s probably another ‘positive’ signal driving money at the 5yo….

Plenty of short-priced horses win handicaps. One of these two might well turn out winner in tomorrow’s Mallard. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. But I don’t want to back either horse….

My role here at ATC – albeit one that is self-imposed – is not to regurgitate or frank opinions the market is already providing loud and clear….

Instead, my job is take a contrarian approach to analysis and to identify dark horse contenders that are potentially underestimated in the betting….

• In the Mallard….

The Milton Harris trained SONGO fits the bill for tomorrow’s Mallard at 12s and 10s….

A step-up to the 14f trip this term has been the making of the 6yo on the flat. He hasn’t broken any records but he’s 2 from 3 at Salisbury over the trip since the end of May – and he’s taken his form to a new level….

His last effort at the Wiltshire track – produced on his first go in a 0-95 handicap – was more than a stone better on RPRs than what he was producing this time last year over 12f….

I’m not saying his races this term have been great…. or deep…. or that the form is strong…. or that of any of the races has worked out well in any particularly striking sense….

…. but he’s an improving horse (jockey Pat Dobbs is 3 from 3 on him), he’s in the form of his life and he’s about to lock horns with a clutch of quality handicappers in a decent handicap race for the first time in his life….

Obviously, connections want a shot at the proper money with the horse – and he’s very much earned his chance….

The step up in class might prove beyond him – first time or every time. And – ahead of this term – he’d have been low on the list of candidates you’d expect to be seeing contesting a handicap at the 0-105 standard….

But he’s here precisely because the longer trips have improved him. He’s a better horse now than he was – and who is to say that he can’t add to this season’s achievements by making a bold bid for some decent prize money tomorrow…..

Sky Bet paying out on 5 places and multiple bookies paying on 4….

• In the Cazoo....

In the Cazoo Handicap (3.45) the two horses that have been most progressive this term have seen money….

Tanmawwy is 3 from 7 and he’s gone up a stone whilst Juan Les Pins (who changed trainers in July) is 4 from 7 since April and up 16lb….

The market logic is clear and compelling: these horses are on the up-and-up right now – they’re improving and they can improve again….

Fair enough. But there’s more than one way to skin a cat. And there’s more than one way to figure out a handicap winner….

I’m going the other way and backing a horse that’s being going backwards in the ratings – MUMS TIPPLE who can be backed at 7s….

Last summer Richard Hannon’s horse was officially rated 112. He’s won once in 14 goes since then – under Frankie Dettori in a small field race at Newmarket three runs back….

He’s due to go back up to 99 – but tomorrow the Hannon horse runs off 97. In other words, he’s a handy two pounds well in on top of everything else. If he can get it together, there’s no doubt he’s dangerously well-handicapped. No doubt whatsoever….

And it’s not like he’s been completely out of form either. He’s hit the frame a few times this term and at York in August he got no luck after being sent off favourite for a valuable handicap….

He’s very nicely weighted. I don’t think he’s in bad form. And Ryan Moore is back in the plate for the first time in a while. He’s ridden the horse four times, won twice on him and the pair click better than any other partnership Hannon has tried.

Moore’s return signals a going day for me and the price is acceptable given the overall shape of the betting. Sky Bet & Betway are paying out on 5 places. Multiple bookies are paying on 4….

• The final word….

That’s all for today. Back next time. Stay tuned….

Meantime – put the kettle on and enjoy the racing….

Against the Crowd