Thursday, 15th September 2022
Tomorrow’s Bronze Cup at Ayr (3.45) has attracted a maximum field of 25 – and I’m going in. We’ll get to my selection in a moment….
First, some observations you might find useful if you’re going to spend the next 48-hours digging out your own bets for Saturday’s Gold Cup….
One – Gold Cup winners generally haven’t shown their hand during the season leading up to the race….
By that I mean the winner hasn’t typically been stacking up wins – and shooting up the official rating scale as a consequence….
Plenty save their best for the big day – like last season’s winner Bielsa whose seasonal record read 0/5 heading to Scotland….
The Gold Cup is both prestigious and valuable. It tends to be a race that trainers target well in advance. Plenty of horses turn up with handicap marks that have been protected and preparations that have been structured for this specific day….
Those horses can be at an advantage over others that have been seriously aimed at big races earlier in the summer. Nine of the last 14 winners had won once or not at all during the build-up to Ayr…
Two – the market’s been on the ball….
Fancied horses frequently make a monkey out of punters like me who shoot at a price. And the fact is that short horses and their backers have been hot property in the Gold Cup over the last couple of decades….
Since 2002 there have been 47 horses sent off at 8s or shorter and they produced 5 winners and 18 placers – a total place strike rate of almost 50%....
That’s very good going. Placepot, Jackpot and Scoop6 players should take note….
Three – some key pointers/splitters to bear in mind….
No horse older than 6 has won the Gold Cup since Hard To Figure in 1993. 18 of the last 22 winners had raced within the last 5-weeks. And 20 of the last 22 winners had appeared at least 10 times on a racecourse….
That’s all good to know. Plenty of the punters you’ll be betting against don’t. Moving on now to tomorrow’s Bronze Cup….
bet365 and Sky Bet have beaten William Hill to the punch with the prices for tomorrow’s Bronze Cup….
They’re the only firms up with prices at the moment – but that’s no issue. Everybody else will be somewhere around where those two firms are when they do release their markets…
The one big discrepancy surrounds Beattie Is Back – the lightly-raced 3yo returning off a 224-day break and making his handicap debut. bet365 are up at 14s while Sky Bet are much more cautious at 15/2….
Meanwhile bet365 were very quick to go 9s about Monsieur Kodiac – three time winner this term – from an opening quote of 14s. Someone somewhere has had a few quid on and the racing desk at bet365 appear to rate the source….
My money will ride on Mick Easterby’s LE BEAU GARCON – who can be backed at 14s and 16s….
Progressive last term as a 3yo he began this term in decent style up at Musselburgh before running a good race in a 0-105 handicap at Newmarket – with the likes of Lethal Levi, Khanjar, Azure Blue and Admiral D going well and subsequently producing wins and decent performances….
Down to 5f at Goodwood next time my man was disappointing – having been sent off fancied. And last time Chester he missed the break, got away slowly, got hampered and was always up against it. I’m drawing a line through that run….
He’s a little something to prove – for sure. But that Newmarket run was promising and he’s got an opportunity – back up at 6f and on the high wing of the draw – to get back on track tomorrow from a 3lb lower mark….
Mick Easterby has a decent record with the minimal participation he’s had in these races at Ayr over the years – and the price is nice with Sky Bet paying 7 places and multiple bookies paying out on the first 6….
Nick’s Dark Horse….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Bronze Cup (3.45 @ Ayr)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Stay tuned….
Meantime – put the kettle on and enjoy the racing….
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