Friday, 23rd September 2022
I’m not for Mujtaba in tomorrow’s Cambridgeshire – 3.40 @ Newmarket….
I highlighted yesterday how inexperience and a lack of seasoning in this kind of big-field environment might be the issue that gets him beaten. But drying ground could be an issue too….
He won on ground officially described as good at Doncaster last time – his first run for 124 days. But it was on the softer side of good that day – and I’m not sure the 4yo is going to get as much cut in the ground as is ideal for him tomorrow….
I much prefer the claims of the other Haggas runner – Protagonist. But he’s hardly been overlooked – up at 15/2 this morning and 2nd favourite….
His win last time at Sandown – produced in a good time – looks like quality form. He and Dual Identity – who reopposes tomorrow on 2lb better terms – pulled clear of the rest….
That last one is shortening up this morning – and looks like being another single-figure proposition before the day is out….
The bottom line is that all three horses are too short for me. In this column – sometimes to my detriment – opposing fancied horses is a default setting. Nobody needs me to put up horses the market is calling out loud and clear….
My role is to dig out something that could go well at a price – a dark horse. Or – in this case – two….
In races of this nature – 29 go to post – I prefer to back two-against-the-field….
My NAP horse – for readers who want just one horse to back per race – is Andrew Balding’s BELL ROCK at the general 16s….
If there’s one thing for sure – this 6yo appreciates the 9f straight at Newmarket….
He was 3rd in the 2020 renewal of the Cambridgeshire off a mark of 103 and then in 2021 off the same mark he won the Suffolk Stakes – which is also run up that same strip of turf….
This term he hasn’t managed to register a win in any of his six runs – three of which came in small-field pattern contests. It’s fair to say that he hasn’t quite been ‘at it’….
But last time at Doncaster was much more promising. He was 3rd of 11 that day and beaten just 2-lengths by the winner – Mujtaba – on ground that would have been soft enough for him….
He reopposes that one tomorrow – at four times the price – on better terms at the weights and on ground that will suit him more than the Haggas jolly…
On a track he handles, on good ground, off a mark of 99 (12lb shy of his career high mark) and with talented 5lb claimer Callum Hutchinson in the plate, everything points to a big run from the Balding horse….
For my second pick I thought about swinging the bat at Ouzo and I thought long and hard about Electrical Storm….
But you can’t back them all and in the end I’ve opted for another one of Saeed Bin Suroor’s – BRILLIANT LIGHT at the general 25s….
The yard won the race last year and this 5yo is perfectly capable of making it two on the bounce from his mark of 97. No question….
He’s been pretty much stuck on that mark all summer. You could make the argument that handicapper has him firmly in his grasp. But I’m not so sure….
He’s run a series of good races in valuable big-field handicaps – not managing to win but never far away and advertising his pot-winning potential….
Forget his last effort at Yarmouth. I reckon that run was a fitness booster for this – and the slow small-field pace did him no favours whatsoever that day. He needs pace to run at and that’s exactly what he’ll get tomorrow….
I should mention the fact he’s never run a race under rules without a bend. But who knows if that’s a negative or a positive. My take is that 9f up a straight probably feels like 10f – and he gets that trip no problem. The straight might be just what he needs….
If you’re betting each way – Sky Bet pay out 1/5 on the first 8. William Hill, Paddy Power & Boylesports are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally….
I’m also two-against-the field in the Lester Piggott First To Last Handicap – 2.40 @ Haydock….
I’m going to give ZARZYNI another chance at the 16s – and he’s my NAP….
He’s been down the field in his last two races. At York he got away slow and never got into it from a starting stall on the wrong side. Last weekend at Ayr I thought he’d improve for a return to the 6f trip – but he faded out of it….
It could be that he’s out of form. That’s a certain possibility….
But he’s been turned around quickly – having been dropped 3lb to 101 – and he goes back to 5f on ground with cut.
That’s a set up similar to the one that delivered a win at Musselburgh earlier this season off 99 – and he’s worth a punt to bounce back at the price….
The other one I’m backing is Kevin Ryan’s SOUND REASON. He’s another who drops back to the minimum trip after a coupe of below par efforts at 6f. And he won’t mind the cut in the ground either….
He’s just 4lb higher than when winning over track and trip in May – and the first time blinkers are interesting.
He won when fitted with first time cheekpieces last term. If blinkers have anything like the same effect then the 16s about him will look enormous in hindsight…
If you’re betting each way – Sky Bet pay out 1/5 on the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Cambridgeshire (3.40 @ Newmarket)….
In the Lester Piggott First To Last Handicap (2.40 @ Haydock)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Stay tuned….
Meantime – put the kettle on and enjoy the racing….
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