Wednesday, 28th September 2022
I’m not in the habit of criticizing jockeys….
I don’t ride myself and I appreciate that how things look on the TV is not always a sympathetic reflection of the split-second dynamics that jockeys must deal with out on the track….
But I must say that I thought Gerald Mosse gave Bubble Gift a poor ride in last season’s Arc….
Bubble Gift is by Nathaniel – a King George winner. You wouldn’t anticipate him having any stamina concerns over the 12f Arc trip….
And – whilst Bubble Gift ran in the Arc – he’d also been entered in the Prix Chaudenay (the previous day) over 15f. That entry suggests connections were aware of his staying credentials….
But in the Arc he didn’t get the ride of a horse sure to get the trip on the heavy ground. Instead, he got a ride you’d expect to be given to a potential non-stayer….
He was always out the back off a steady early pace and only got going in the straight – finishing 8th of 14 and beaten 5.5 lengths….
On the face of it his performance was not one that would necessarily catch the eye or make him the subject of too many post-race debates. But he did really well under the circumstances….
My takes was this: in a race not run to suit – under a ride that didn’t play to his strengths – he made up plenty of ground late on and simply ran out of track. It all happened too late….
After the race I studied the sectional times. This week I revisited the notes I made and can report the following….
From 5f out to 4f out only one horse covered ground faster than Bubble Gift….
It was the exact same story from the 3 pole to the 2 pole….
From 2f out to 1f out only two horses moved quicker….
And Bubble Gift covered the final furlong in the 4th fastest time (quicker than anything outside the 1-2-3)….
Think how much closer he’d have been with a stronger pace on….
Think how much close he’d have finished had Mosse responded to the steady early pace by getting his mount closer to the business end of proceedings quicker….
…. giving his horse less to do with his finishing burst….
Perhaps I’m being unfair to Mosse….
Perhaps this is one of those occasions where in-play occurrences give the jockey problems that make him look bad to know-all armchair critics like me who really know very little about the realities of race riding….
The horse didn’t get out of the stalls as slickly as you’d like and early doors Mosse had no choice. He was behind most horses in the field – like it or not….
And perhaps Bubble Gift is one of those quirky characters who doesn’t want to be in the thick of it early doors. Perhaps he needs to be dropped out and to come through loads of horses late on….
I don’t know. I don’t know the horse like the people who work with him day- to-day know him….
But I do know that the early pace in last season’s Arc was steady (at best)….
And I do know (given how the horse finished) that had the pace been quicker – or had the horse been positioned further forward in the mid-stages of the race – that he’d have likely been closer at the finish….
Of course, this year is not last year. And Sunday’s race is an entirely different bunch of coconuts. But connections are back again for another crack….
Bubble Gift has no alternative engagements in the book. Connections haven’t stepped the horse up in trip. It’s not a case of ‘….we tried the Arc, it didn’t work out, and we’re targeting more suitable options.’ Owners and trainer appear to believe there’s something left on the table in the Arc….
There’s a strong possibility that the field will be bigger this year – maybe even a maximum field of 20. And that’s a variable that might play into a hotter gallop in the early and mid-stages of the race….
The horse has had a very similar prep to last year. We know he stays and we know he’ll handle forecast soft conditions….
Bubble Gift got beat a fortnight back in the G2 Prix Foy – but the horse was entitled to need that run off a 10-week break and you’d think that race would put him spot-on for Sunday’s primary objective….
The bottom line for me is that Bubble Gift went better than the bare result suggests last year – with factors running against him. And the potential certainly exists for him to improve on that effort this time around….
Is he good enough to win? Can he overcome all the big names? Can he outclass the class horses? Can he turn a tall order into a shock win? Who knows….
But I’m prepared to speculate a few quid at the big prices. Because he wasn’t that far away last year – and it’s easy to see how he might have been plenty closer….
I’ve had a few pennies on at the 85.0 in the outright win market on Betfair Exchange….
You can get 80s this morning with William Hill – 1/5 the first 3 places….
Other firms – like Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Sky Bet – are paying out on 4 places but they’re up at 66s. Note: Sky Bet are non-runner-no-bet
It’s early to go in – for sure. But I’m playing speculatively for small stakes – and I won’t be afraid to press up if prices drift….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow. Meanwhile….
…. get in touch direct at: nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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