Friday, 30th September 2022
The big feature for handicap fans tomorrow afternoon is the Peroni Nastro Challenge Cup – 3.36 @ Ascot – where a field of 18 take part….
There’s 10mm of rain forecast to fall on Ascot later today. Underfoot conditions are currently described as good (good to firm in places), but it will be softer by post time….
The Challenge Cup is the last of multiple big-field handicaps run up the 7f strip at Ascot over the course of a flat season. And it’s no surprise to see plenty of the same old faces taking part – including Fresh whose won two of those races this term….
Having finished 4th of 27 in the Victoria Cup off 98, he won the International Stakes in July off the same mark before coming out on top in the National Racehorse Week Handicap earlier this month off 102….
Having won more than £100k on this same strip of turf this term he goes into tomorrow’s race still rated just 103. No wonder he’s top of the market at 6s this morning.
But James Fanshawe’s 5yo is no standalone favourite….
Andrew Balding’s Symbolize – 2nd in last season’s Balmoral over the mile – is contesting favouritism and Clive Cox’s River Nymph – 1st and 3rd in the last two editions of the Victoria Cup – is up at 7s….
They’re all too short in the betting for me to consider. My role – albeit self-imposed and frequently detrimental to my prospects – is to oppose the market’s take on the race and to dig out ‘live’ contenders at tastier prices….
…. ASJAD is the one that catches my eye at the general 12s….
It’s been a season of two distinct halves for the 4yo. He began with a C3 handicap win in April off 95 over 6f at Redcar – his first run for trainer James Horton….
Then he got well-beaten at Newmarket – a race that maybe came too soon on a track he probably didn’t appreciate….
Next time he bounced back with a proper C2 big-field handicap win over 6f at York off a mark of 99….
Then the wheels came off. In two major handicap assignments at Ascot – the Wokingham over 6f and the International over 7f – he was well and truly spanked. Both races were run on proper fast ground and I wonder if that was an issue….
Whatever, Asjad was given a freshening break and on his return – on easier ground – at Doncaster earlier this month he won another C2 handicap over the extended 6f trip off 101….
He’s up to 104 so he’s not exceptionally well-handicapped. But you could make that case against most of tomorrow’s field – and the weight spread is conservative with just 9lb between top and bottom rated horses….
Whilst some of tomorrow’s opponents are entirely exposed, Asjad has still only raced 10 times and there could be more mileage in him yet – especially over 7f….
He’s pretty much unexposed over this specialist trip and the way he finished off at Doncaster – after a change of tactics that saw him ridden from the rear – suggests he might well improve again for the extra yardage….
He certainly won’t mind cut in the ground. And whilst he’s bombed out twice at Ascot, I don’t think the track was the issue. He’s a decent enough price at the 12s….
If you’re playing each-way: Sky Bet are paying out 1/5 on the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
I’ve already advised BUBBLE GIFT for Sunday’s Arc De Triomphe – Longchamp @ 3.05 – at big prices….
I won’t bore you with repetition. If you missed Wednesday’s column, you can read my case for that one here….
What I am going to do this morning is add another string to my bow. Sunday’s race is very open and on likely very soft ground it could well be another one of those Arc renewals in which a horse wins or hits the frame at a mammoth price….
If the forecast rain arrives in France tomorrow, whatever wins on Sunday is going to need to be tough. And William Haggas’s outsider ALENQUER certainly fits that bill….
He won the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh back in May over 10f – after which William Haggas celebrated his toughness before asserting that he thought ‘a really strong run 10-furlongs is ideal for him….’
He got beat in his next two races – both high-grade assignments. Making the running seemed to count against him at Sandown in the Eclipse and he got outpaced over 10f on soft ground in the Irish Champion Stakes….
Perhaps what he needs now is a more astringent stamina test. He’s not raced much over 12f – just four goes to date. But one of those did result in a win in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot in 2021 – on soft ground….
A 9th place finish in last season’s Arc wouldn’t leap out as a pitch perfect signal for a total reversal of performance this time around – but he was keen that day and it told on him in the later stages….
But with another year on his back he could well be a different proposition. Unlike some, he will relish the ground on Sunday and he’s as tough as they come. At 80s (bet365 & Unibet) and 66s (generally) he’s a speculative each-way play that’s not without hope….
They don’t call me the bat swinger for nothing….
If you’re playing each-way: William Hill, Boylesports and Livescore Bet are paying 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/4 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Peroni Nastro Challenge Cup (3.36 @ Ascot)….
In the Arc De Triomphe (Sunday 3.05 @ Longchamp)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Stay tuned….
Meantime – put the kettle on and enjoy the racing….
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