Thursday, 6th October 2022
The market is sweet on the Haggas pair for tomorrow’s Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket – 4.10….
La Yakel produced a taking performance in a decent handicap at Ascot last time and is still rated just 92. Educator is the other Haggas participant – but I’m not so convinced by him. He’s lightly-raced like La Yakel – but not as seasoned in deeper fields….
First Ruler is fancied too. He was beaten just a length in that race La Yakel won at Ascot last month – and reopposes tomorrow on 4lb better terms. He’s trained by Charlie Appleby who has four in the race – which he’s won twice in the last 5-years….
They’re all too short for me. I oppose the most fancied horses as a matter of default. You don’t need me to regurgitate what the market is already telling you. My job is to dig out ‘live’ contenders at dark horse prices….
Sure – I don’t make life easy for myself. But that’s how I play the big-field handicap game – and there are no big gains to be made by simply following the crowd….
I’m going two-against-the-field – backing both horses to win and eschewing the opportunity to play for place money….
Kevin Ryan’s THUNDERING would be my nap selection at the general 16s – for those readers who prefer to back one horse per race – be it win or e/w….
Forget his performance last time at Haydock where he got too far out of his ground to get into the race. Look instead to his performance the time before at York behind Farhan….
He was the only 3yo in the field that day and ran an absolute cracker – coming from the rear. You could make the case that he wants further….
But I’m not sure Kevin Ryan agrees. He had the option of the 14f handicap for 3yos at York (Ryan’s local track) tomorrow afternoon but has sent the horse here instead….
Newmarket is a stiffer test than York and back against his own age group tomorrow this progressive horse – whose run well all season – is a nice bet at the price off a mark of just 92….
The other one I’m backing is CAIUS CHORISTER at the general 12s – who also had the option of that race up at York. She’d have carried top weight there while she carries 9-06 here….
I’m not sure that 3lb difference is that big a deal and I take the view that connections must prefer the 12f over the 14f trip at this stage. Whatever, she’s progressed like nobody’s business this term – going up the handicap 43lbs since
April….
On the way she produced five wins on the bounce before finding just Soulcombe too good in the Melrose Cup at York. Last time in France in Listed company – and sent off favourite – she didn’t handle the soft ground….
She’s up to 99 now – going up another 7lb for that York defeat. But back on a sounder surface tomorrow there could still be more to come. It’s interesting that Olivier Peslier – who partnered in France for the first time – retains the ride and comes over for that sole engagement tomorrow afternoon….
I thought long and hard about Empirestateofmind for the Autumn Handicap at York – 2.40….
But he’s been creeping up the weights in defeat and – whilst 95 is not a mark that entirely puts the lid on him – I prefer to back BOPEDRO at 12s & 10s for David O’Meara off a mark of 98….
As recently as May – trained by Jessica Harrington – he was racing in Ireland off a mark of 107 and he wasn’t disgraced in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot off 103….
Since he’s been with David O’Meara he’s dropped down to his current mark – just 4lb in advance of the Irish mark he won a big handicap off at the Curragh last August – a win that got him raised to 103….
One thing O’Meara hasn’t done with the horse in his three runs for the yard to date is place him in a big field – despite plenty of evidence that says a big-field pace is what this 6yo thrives on….
Tomorrow is his first go for the yard in just such a race and he’s running in slightly easier company than he’s encountered in most of the handicaps he’s contested….
The visor is back on. So too is Danny Tudhope. And the time of the year augurs well. The later months are when this horse has done most of his best work in previous seasons. He’s nicely handicapped and if he runs his race then he surely goes close….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Old Rowley Cup (4.10 @ Newmarket)….
In the Autumn Handicap (2.40 @ York)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next time. Stay tuned….
Meantime – put the kettle on and enjoy the racing….
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