Friday, 22nd October 2022
Favourites and 2nd favourites won 10 of the 14 races staged at last year’s Showcase meeting at Cheltenham….
Only two winners sent off at SPs bigger than 7s – one of those coming in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier)….
A field of 18 lines up for this season’s renewal of that race tomorrow afternoon at 3.50….
A big field is no guarantee of another big-price winner, of course. But at least we have a competitive betting heat to shoot at on what is pretty much Day 1 of the new jumps season….
Jonjo O’Neill’s AN TAILLIUR is up at a general 8s and that’s a fair price about a horse with more to come yet off an official mark of 136….
Last season he won 4 of his 7 races. And he was 2nd in another two. One of those defeats came against Marie’s Rock at Kempton on Boxing Day – where he was beaten 7 lengths over 2m5f in receipt of 2lb (with the rest of the field 4+ lengths further back still). The winner’s rated 150 now….
An Tailliur’s progress last term was more incremental than a case of dazzling leaps and bounds – but he did improve for each of his last four runs….
…. and his last two seasonal appearances at Haydock and Cartmel saw him produce back-to-back career tops – and very solid figures on the clock – having been stepped up to the 3m trip….
He hasn’t run since May but I’m not concerned about that – he’s won twice off breaks off 100+ days. And he won’t mind a decent surface either – his best performances have been produced on sound ground….
He’s only had those two races at 3m+ and remains unexposed at the trip – and he’s only 2lb higher than he was for a very narrow defeat last time. I think he’s a decent bet at the price….
He’s my NAP selection for readers who like to back one horse per race. But I want to be two-against-the-field and my second pick is Nick Gifford’s DIDTHEYLEAVEUOUTTO at 14s and 12s….
He’s already had a couple of runs since August and should be fitter than some of his opponents. He’s back up in trip too – which is interesting….
He wasn’t seen again last term after finishing stone last in the Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Haydock – but the time before he’d demonstrated how 3m might suit when 2nd to Stoney Mountain at Newbury….
For a horse who always seems to get going too late over shorter trips, 3m might just be the key that enables him to win again over timber. He ran a good trial at Chepstow over too short a trip earlier this month and the price his double-figure price is sufficient to tempt me in….
e/w terms = William Hill & Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
Nigel Twiston-Davies has a better record than most at this meeting – and he’s won tis race before with Cogry. This time around he has the 7/2 favourite running for him – The Hollow Ginge….
The 9yo ran a big race in the 2020 renewal of the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase at Newbury – but he’s never been the same horse since in my book. In 5 of his subsequent 8 races, he’s failed to make it home….
But he is rated just 127 over fences now – an incredible 12lb lower than he’s rated over hurdles and 17lb lower than his peak chasing mark. If he’s on-song then he’s an obvious player….
But my job is not to run with the crowd. My job is to dig out a dark horse that can out-perform market expectations and give punters a run for their money at a price….
Of those up at the tastier prices, Coeur Serein is an interesting contender at the general 9s – but with just 3 chase runs under his belt to date I wonder if he’s got the requisite level of experience for this….
Preference is for Neil Mulholland’s LORD ACCORD at the general 12s….
He didn’t see the trip out as well as more experienced rivals at Uttoxeter in April – but I doubt that was a true measure of his ability. It was his first go outside of novice company and he will have learnt something from the experience….
He’s only had 6 goes over fences, he’s got another summer on his back and he remains relatively unexposed. He wants better ground and this time of year isn’t a bad time to catch him on a mark of just 131….
He had a preparation spin over hurdles at Worcester last month – over an inadequate trip – going well for a long way. That will have sharpened him up and he’s capable of outrunning his price tomorrow…..
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Pertemps Network Hcp Hurdle (3.50 @ Cheltenham)….
In the Made To Play Hcp Chase (2.05 @ Cheltenham)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today. I’ll be back next week….
P.S. If you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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