Friday, 28th October 2022
No proper big-field handicap at Ascot on Saturday….
But there are a couple of handicaps with double-figure fields – and another with 9 runners….
We must work with what is handed out to us. Let’s get down to business….
Ahead of last season’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, Nicky Henderson said he couldn’t split his two runners – First Street and BROOMFIELD BURG (sent off favourite on the day)….
Since then First Street has moved a few pounds up the scale – after placing in that Newbury contest and the County Hurdle – while Broomfield Burg has dropped a few and disappointed….
But you’d think he’d have a fitness edge on some of his opponents tomorrow afternoon. Most have yet to be seen out on the track this term whilst Broomfield Burg put in a reasonable enough effort in defeat at Chepstow earlier this month – his first go after a wind-op….
That race was over 2m4f and he gave me the impression he didn’t quite get it. Maybe he needed the run. Whatever – he’s worth another crack at the minimum distance tomorrow….
Earlier this year Broomfield Burg was pretty much expected to prove himself a 140+ horse. It hasn’t happened. But that’s not to say it won’t….
He’s potentially well-handicapped on a mark of 130 tomorrow – and the 6s is a fair enough price about him with that Chepstow race under his belt….
e/w terms = 1/5 the first 3 across the board….
Fergal O’Brien was well-pleased to inherit GUMBALL from Philip Hobbs at the start of last season. The multi-code performer was rated 148 over fences at the time….
He’s only had four goes over the big obstacles for the O’Brien yard since then – and it’s probably fair to say that they’ve been finding their way with him….
He gave a glimpse of his ability at Ludlow in December – producing his best performance since his novice days in a narrow defeat not aided by losing valuable ground at the start….
After that he was put away for the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival – where he finished down the field on heavy ground that did for a lot of the participants that day….
I’m pretty sure O’Brien’s excitement when he got Gumball was not about the prospect of losing narrowly to a 130-rated horse at Ludlow – now rated 123….
Aspirations would have been pitched a bit more loftily than that and – with the O’Brien team having had a more time to work on him at home – I can see the 8yo having a more productive season this time around….
And the team have certainly got a mark that should prove workable. He runs tomorrow at Ascot off a mark of just 137 – he’s dropped 11lbs for his four chase runs for the yard….
This will be his first go over the fences this term – and he’ll need to hit the ground running. But he did have a go on the level in September – and you’d think that’s set him up nicely for tomorrow’s assignment….
If he’s on his game then he’ll be competitive on 137 – and the 8s is fair….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally….
Horses carrying weight don’t tend to go well in this event….
Perhaps it’s the nature of the course (stiff) combined with the fact that many runners are having their first go of the campaign – but Traffic Fluide is the only horse to win carrying more than 11-03 in the last 16 years….
That’s a positive stat for backers of Alan King’s Major Dundee who runs off a mark of 132 under 10-12 but the 7yo – who finished 3rd in last season’s Scottish National at Ayr as a novice – has already been well-found in the betting….
I wouldn’t put anybody off him at the 4s – but you don’t need me to endorse what the market is already calling out loud and clear….
My job is to dig out a dark horse that can out-perform market expectations and give punters a run for their money at a price. And the one for me in tomorrow’s race is the one at the bottom of the card – POPPA POUTINE at the general 14s….
He’s been operating at a lower level and will need to improve again – for sure. But he’s a young chaser at 6 with just 7 chases to his name and he’s a candidate to rank higher in these staying chases. A mark of just 131 gives him plenty of margin to work with….
He doesn’t come here straight off the bat either. He took in a handicap hurdle last month – suggesting his trainer has been working to a plan. I reckon he’ll be primed to fire tomorrow. You can never know for sure – this is horse racing after all. But at the price, I’m more than happy to swing the bat….
e/w terms = William Hill, Sky Bet & Betway are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Bateaux London Handicap Hurdle (2-05 @ Ascot)….
In the Byrne Group Handicap Chase (2-40 @ Ascot)….
In the Bateaux London Gold Cup (3.15 @ Ascot)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
If you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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