Dark horses for Saturday at Cheltenham....

Friday, 11th November 2022

Dark horses for Saturday at Cheltenham….

A total of 20 winners from 43 runners over the last fortnight translates into a win strike rate of 46.5% for Paul Nicholls….

In other words, he’s cooking on gas right now – and I can’t resist having a few quid on his SIMPLY THE BETTS at 14s in tomorrow’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham (2.20)….

He ran a decent-enough race on his debut for Nicholls in last season’s renewal – only giving best late on – and Nicholls wouldn’t have known too much about the horse at that stage….

Later in the season – in the 2m5f handicap run at Cheltenham on New Year’s day – the horse went very close off a mark of 153…..

The 9yo has a solid record at Cheltenham. He won the Plate at the Festival back in 2020 off 149 – just 3lb shy of the mark he runs off tomorrow with his amateur owner/riding getting a 3lb allowance….

Earlier this week that owner/rider – David Maxwell – was telling journalists how Nicholls has told him the horse is absolutely bang in form right now and that he’s never had him better….

You can’t always take these kinds of comments at face value but – with the form Nicholls is in at the moment – it is an encouraging scenario….

Simply The Betts will certainly appreciate the underfoot conditions tomorrow – he likes decent ground – and I envisage a big run at a decent e/w price….

If there is a bugbear then it is Maxwell’s presence in the saddle – he’s never ridden in a race this big before….

He joked to journalists that if Nicholls had his way then he’d probably be jocked-off. As it is he will ride the horse tomorrow afternoon….

Perhaps Maxwell was just being self-deprecating. Because he’s no mug in the saddle. Under rules his strike rate is 22.5% and when partnering horses trained by Paul Nicholls that figure rises to 27.3%....

He’s earned his crack. Not least because he’s the one paying the bills. Like any of the professionals, Maxwell will be playing to win. You can be sure of that. And you don’t get experience without getting some experience….

The price factors in his Corinthian credentials. I reckon the horse is primed to give a very good account of himself….

e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….

• In the Paddy Power Games Hcp Hdl….

I’m having a speculative few quid e/w on LISNAGAR OSCAR in tomorrow’s Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2.55) – the 16s is a big price….

Of course, the one-time Stayers’ Hurdle winner is up at that price because he spent the whole of last season misfiring – in six runs he pulled-up three times and got well beat on the other three occasions….

I’m taking a chance on him. There’s no doubt about that. I’m assuming they’ve done some work with him at home and that a mark of 142 – he started last term on 154 – on his favourite track gives him the best chance possible of landing the prize if he’s back to anything like….

He has gone well fresh in the past and his amateur rider takes off a useful 7lbs….

The Nicholls horse and race favourite – Shearer – is progressive. But it’s not the deepest race, four are out of the handicap and several have questions of their own to answer….

It could be a nice bit of placement on Rebecca Curtis’s part. But I accept that It could also turn out to be a look-see starting point spin with a horse that is slowly working its way back from the doldrums….

Time will tell. But – at the price – I’m willing to swing the bat and take my chances that back-class outs….

e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….

• The last word….

That’s all for now….

Sunday brings additional targets – and I’ll be in touch with my Sunday advice later today….

If you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd