Friday, 11th November 2022
Ben Pauling’s SEVERANCE at the general 12s is the one that appeals for Sunday’s Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (2.55)….
The 6yo has a record that reads 1 win from 10 runs – and you might take the view that he’s hard to win with….
But a closer look at the formbook reveals that he certainly hasn’t been wrapped up in cotton wool and spared the tough assignments….
He’s taken in some knotty handicaps – and performed with plenty of credit in defeat….
He found just Cormier too good in a C2 handicap at Cheltenham in January before finishing 4/11 in the Morebattle at Kelso….
He followed that up with a 2/16 finish in a good handicap at Aintree before heading to Haydock for the Swinton – where he finished 2/16….
He’s been knocking on the door in tough races and earning reasonable money in defeat. He turns-up tomorrow plenty more seasoned than most of the opposition and I expect him to run well….
The Swinton performance was the pick of his runs last term. He produced that effort off a mark of 128 and gets to run off just a pound higher tomorrow….
He’s had a run this term at Ffos Las in the Welsh Champion Hurdle – where he was beaten just over 2 lengths. And that was no bad effort considering he was 4lb out of the handicap and his jockey put up 2lb overweight….
That trip to Wales will have put him spot-on for Sunday. He’s got no problems with the decent ground and if he takes to the track – he’s never been to Cheltenham before (and that’s the slight negative) – then I expect him to run a big race off a quick pace that will suit his run-style….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally….
DOMAINE DE L’ISLE is a fair e/w price at 20s in the Jewson Handicap Chase (2.20)….
It’s fair to say he’s never set the world on fire but he’s been highly-tried over fences by trainer Sean Curran – taking on five high-quality chase assignments on the bounce last term between October and April….
The pick of his performances was his 4/21 finish (albeit beaten 22l) in the Becher Chase at Aintree – where he was running off 147….
The fact that his handicap mark has dropped to 135 for tomorrow’s race is a large part of his appeal as a betting vehicle tomorrow. That – and the fact that Brian Hughes is onboard again….
It may be the case that Hughes simply happens to be available and at the track on a day when Curran needs a rider – that’s perfectly feasible….
But he and the horse have form in combination – 2 wins from 4 goes and one of them at Cheltenham (albeit on the New course)….
That win was registered in April 2021 off a mark of 144 – on decent ground. The 9yo might not be the same horse now – but if he is back to form then he’s got a real chance at the weights….
It’s all ifs and buts, of course. I have no inside information from the yard. I’m simply reading between the lines and swinging the bat at a decent price….
He had a spin over hurdles at Worcester last month. I can’t imagine he was there to land the money – and he didn’t….
But you’d think he’d be sharper for it and – if he’s on his game for his first chase assignment of the new campaign – he’s weighted to get competitive….
e/w terms = It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (2.55 @ Cheltenham)….
In the Jewson Handicap Chase (2.20 @ Cheltenham)….
Advised prices are correct at the time my column is submitted for publication. But prices are subject to fluctuation. There’s nothing I can do about that. Be sure to consult Oddschecker – you may find a quote better than advised…. |
That’s all for today – I’ll be back next week….
Win, lose or draw this weekend – enjoy the racing….
Finally: if you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
PS. To view my Dark Horses for Saturday’s races at Cheltenham, click here.
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