Wednesday, 16th November 2022
How many times has it happened to you?
You’re stood at the bar or brewing up in the office kitchen....
You’re talking about an upcoming race with a mate or reading your Racing Post and minding your own business....
When smart Alec comes over shaking his head and tutting....
‘Horse racing? Waste of time. The bookie always wins, you know....’
Roll-up that Racing Post and slap him around the ear with it. Liven him up a bit. That’s my advice....
Better still, ask him what it is he thinks he knows. Ask him why he thinks what he does. I bet my eyesight to 10p he hasn’t got the first clue what he’s banging on about....
The thing you want to do with smart Alec when he gets up onto his hind legs is to ask him to explain who he thinks ‘the bookmaker’ is....
He’ll most likely paint a picture of some fat middle-aged shyster in a sheepskin coat and a pork pie hat with a cigar stuck in his cakehole and a big fat donkey-choker of a wallet full of tens and twenties stuck in his pocket....
In other words, he’ll present you with the standard caricature – the cartoon version of the big, bad bookmaker that serves to mask reality....
If that’s what Alec presents you with, you know straight-off the bat that you’re dealing with a fool who doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about – because there is no such thing as ‘the bookmaker’....
Back in the golden age of race-track betting, the bookmakers were individual men with their own opinions that they would put up against the opinions of others in the market – backed with their own cash....
That’s not what bookmaking is nowadays. Walk into the HQ of any big betting firm today and you won’t find any bookmaker like that....
These days ‘the bookmaker’ is just an idea. The human form doesn’t really exist....
Take bet365 – one of the most successful betting firms in the world. Who is the bookmaker at bet365? Denise Coates? Her brother, John?
One of their names probably appears on the licence. But that’s just paperwork. I bet neither one could tell you what won last year’s Derby. And that is a serious statement. No exaggeration. So, what kind of bookmaker is that?
Denise Coates is an accountant. John Coates is a lawyer. Neither will have an opinion worth a damn on what will win the big race next Saturday. They likely have no interest whatsoever in such matters....
And nor do they have to. What I’m saying is not a personal criticism. It’s simply an illustration of my wider argument. These days, ‘the bookmaker’ is not what he used to be....
These days, ‘the bookmaker’ is more likely to have a background in Chartered Accountancy or Corporate Law than one that involves standing on a pitch at Plumpton and taking bets in the middle of winter....
These days ‘the bookmaker’ is actually more of a huge corporate machine – presided over by lawyers and accountants and corporate planners – than an actual and identifiable human being....
The machine is constructed of computers and networks and servers and software and algorithms and sharp practice and thousands of human moving parts all playing some small and dull role in the execution of the machine’s operation and objectives....
‘The bookmaker’ as we knew him (and as many betting-illiterate people like Alec still understand him) is stone dead. And he isn’t coming back....
Next, we might ask Alec what it is about horse racing specifically that leads him to believe ‘the bookmaker’ always wins....
In my experience, he’ll refer to one of two common myths....
One, the bookie is some kind of champion race-fixer who knows all the results before the races are run....
…. he has an army of minions running about in the world and bribing jockeys, blackmailing trainers, doping horses, and paying officials and journalists to look the other way....
Two, the bookie is some kind of unassailable genius who knows so much about horses and racing – insight accumulated from years and years of experience in the game – that you simply can’t hope to compete with him....
In other words, bookmakers have some deep or special knowledge about the mystical sport of horse racing that mere humans could never tap into or build....
Bribing, blackmailing, doping and all the rest of it probably do go on in some quarters to a very limited extent....
But those instances are exceptions rather than the rule. And those practices have nothing to do with the bookies....
The bookies have so many dark arts, crooked practices, and diabolical tools at their disposal – just in the way they conduct day-to-day business – that they don’t need to go out and fix races in order to shaft punters or make the game pay....
The SP mechanism; no-lose betting accounts; palpable error rules; each-way terms that amount to theft; hopelessly restrictive terms and conditions....
All these things and more enable betting firms to shaft punters much more cost-effectively than going out into the world and getting their hands dirty....
It’s like the old adage says: you can steal more money with a pen than you can with a gun....
And about the second myth – that one about the bookmaker being some kind of unassailable genius....
I worked in the HQ of a major bookmaker for five years and I didn’t come across any racing geniuses. There were a few very smart and high-quality people. But none of them worked on the racing desk....
The people who did were just average blokes with impressive beer-bellies doing a job that amounted to glorified data-inputting. Some of them knew very little about racing....
There’s this silly idea out there (probably put about by racing ‘traders’) that says racing ‘traders’ are the Kings of the Mountain. That they have some great knowledge or rarefied opinion. That they actually (whisper it now) ‘compile the odds.’
They might have done once – back in the 1970s when they were still wiping down blackboards with wet sponges....
But racing ‘traders’ do no such thing now. They get their initial prices off an industry tissue. They keep a very close eye on Oddschecker and Betfair. And they suspend the market and alter prices the moment any incoming money suggests the initial tissue prices were wrong....
From that point forward, weight of money dictates price. Opinion doesn’t come into it. Not at any point. In fact, a trader with an opinion is a dangerous liability. He might try and second guess the all-knowing, meticulously-programmed machine....
The trader’s job is to watch on as the machine manages liability. He’s basically a night-watchman – on standby in case something goes wrong and a button needs pressing to suspend the market and turn it back on again. End of. There are no racing geniuses at work....
The bookmaker Alec refers to doesn’t exist in the way Alec thinks he does....
Betting firms do not fix all the races. And betting firms frequently don’t have an informed opinion like Alec believes. They don’t need one these days because the machine takes care of everything. It’s a numbers game....
The bookmaker profits not because he fixes races or knows more about racing than the punter – but because his overround ensures he profits whatever the outcome of the race....
The bookie isn’t really a player in the racing game at all – not in the way Alec believes. He doesn’t ‘win’. He never really risks ‘losing’. He just gets paid....
The bookmaker makes a market where punters can express their opinions and earns an over-round (often a criminal percentage) for performing that function....
The people who do the winning and losing are the punters. Punters bet against each other when it boils down to it – not against ‘the bookmaker’....
And, despite what smart Alec might have you believe, other punters and their opinions can be beaten. Over time, you can prove your money is plenty smarter than theirs....
That’s why we play the game. And why we will continue to play it. At least that’s the case for me….
Meanwhile, you’ll be pleased to learn that I’ve arranged for smart Alec to be shot....
That’s all for today. I’ll be back tomorrow….
If you have information, opinion, comment, questions, or requests then contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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