Friday, 25th November 2022
The Coral Gold Cup is one of the toughest handicaps of the season – and tomorrow’s renewal at Newbury (3.05) is particularly open….
The market tells the story. A field of 16 heads to post – and 8 of those are up at prices between 13/2 and 9s this morning….
There are question marks about one or two….
Le Milos is 4lb well in and was impressive at Bangor – but is he the same horse on better ground?
Fiddlerontheroof – last year’s 2nd – would probably like it softer. Ditto Threeunderthrufive….
If I were backing Gericault Roque I would like to have seen a bit more on his first go since a wind op….
Busselton must do something no horse has done before and overcome relative youth. Last time out he became the first 5yo to win the Kerry National since 1969 – but in 65-years no 5yo has ever won the Coral Gold Cup….
Looking further down the list, Lord Accord won’t mind the ground – and there’s no doubting he’s been one of the eye-catching handicappers during the early part of the season….
But he has had three runs heading into tomorrow’s race and he’s probably here on bonus – because the ground hasn’t turned – rather than because this race was initially set out as a target. And I think that might be against him….
The pick of the prices for me is OUR POWER at the general 12s….
Like Lord Accord he’s on an upward curve and progressing through the ranks. Unlike Lord Accord he’s had just the one run and tomorrow’s race was very definitely an intended target….
Trainer Sam Thomas sent Our Power to Ascot to contest the London Gold Cup in the belief that the 7yo needed to win to get a run tomorrow….
…. and he did win. But as it turns out he would have got into tomorrow’s race off his Ascot mark of 136 – so he’s 5lbs higher in the handicap now than he might have been….
No matter. He needed a run and on a revised mark of 141 Our Power is still very much at the right end of the handicap….
…. and – despite only having raced 7 times over fences – he’s already proved in spades that he can produce the goods in a competitive big-field environment over big fences at a top track….
…. and he’s another who certainly won’t mind the decent surface tomorrow….
Kerry Lee’s DEMACHINE is the pick of the prices in tomorrow’s Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury (1.20)….
He was given an entry for the Paddy Power Gold Cup but swerved that assignment for these calmer waters. There’s been no prep run but that’s not an issue – because the 8yo is best caught fresh….
This time last year he was running in the Coral Gold Cup – running with great credit despite not quite getting the trip….
Things went off the rails a bit afterwards. But a wind op ahead of his final run last term at Uttoxeter produced a much-improved effort…
He went up 4lbs for that to a mark of 140 and that’s towards the top end of his official rating range to date….
But he’s only had 8 goes over fences and there’s still plenty of scope for progression if his problems are now behind him – which they appeared to be at Uttoxeter in April….
And at 8s Chris Gordon’s LORD BADDESLEY is the pick of the prices in the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle at Newbury (1.55)….
He’s up to a career-high mark of 133 after a 9.5 length win at Plumpton last month – and you could make the case that he’s up against it now….
But I’m not so sure. He’d been racing over the minimum trip. Now he’s up to intermediate trips – and the extra yardage appears to have improved him….
Before Plumpton he’d finished 2nd in a Silver Cup at Chepstow over the 2m4f trip – a race that’s produced 5 subsequent winners….
One of those – (the winner that day) Knappers Hill – is being talked of as a possible Champion Hurdle horse. And Lord Baddesley was only 2.25 lengths behind him at Chepstow….
My point is that he’s still relatively unexposed at intermediate trips, he’s in form, he likes good ground and it’s all set up for him to produce another competitive performance tomorrow….
Nick’s Dark Horses….To recap on my dark horse bets…. In the Coral Gold Cup (3.05 @ Newbury)….
e/w terms = Sky Bet & Betway 1/5 first 6. 1/5 first 5 generally…. In the Peter O’Sullevan Memorial (1.20 @ Newbury)….
e/w terms = 1/5 first 4 generally…. In the Coral Racing Club Handicap Hurdle (1.55 @ Newbury)….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 first 5. 1/5 first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Win, lose or draw this weekend – enjoy the racing….
Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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