Friday, 2nd December 2022
No complaints about tomorrow’s Becher Chase field at Aintree (2.05)….
…. 23 runners tackle the 3m2f trip and 21 of the most distinctive fences in racing on ground described as good to soft (soft in places)….
Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero are going well right now – 10 winners @ 19.6% over the last 30-day period….
…. and it’s their Gesskille who heads the betting at 9/2 following an eye-taking performance in last month’s Grand Sefton….
He was unlucky that day – his saddle slipped – but he was still only beaten a nose after producing a rattling finish….
I see why he’s been backed – but he’s never gone beyond 3m. On the single occasion he went that far, the race was run at a steady pace and turned into a sprint….
I’m not saying he won’t stay tomorrow afternoon. But with his stamina at the trip unproven – he’s short enough for me. I’m taking him on….
Ditto Ashtown Lad….
Dan Skelton’s won a Betfair Chase and a Coral Gold Cup over the last fortnight – and the bookies are taking no chances with this one. He’s vying for favouritism….
He’s got big race pedigree – finishing 5/23 in last season’s Scottish Grand National. And he had a blow over hurdles at Aintree last month when he finished just 4.5 lengths behind Remastered – 2nd in last weekend’s Newbury feature….
So, it’s not like Ashtown Lad has nothing going for him – he’s a smart chaser. And on 138 he’s well treated on his best novice form….
But you don’t need me to confirm what the market is already telling you. If you want to back Ashtown Lad – or Gesskille – you can do that under your own steam….
My job is to dig out a horse that can run a big race at a bigger price….
I’m two-against-the-field….
My NAP pick – if you like to back oner horse per race – is DR KANANGA at the general 14s & 12s….
Tomorrow’s race is a step up in class – but the 8yo is improving and ticks boxes. He jumps well, travels on the pace and handles the prevailing ground….
Watch the C4 handicap he won at Chepstow in February – putting 16 rivals to the sword. He made all, jumped lovely and won going away….
Watch how often Ben Jones checks out where the opposition are through his legs from the 6th last to the post. He had a tonne of horse underneath him and probably could have won by a furlong….
He was 125 that day. He’s 140 now – but there’s more to come….
He had a pipe-opener over hurdles at Bangor last month. You’d think that’s put him spot-on for tomorrow. I expect a big performance….
My second pick is DIDERO VALLIS at the general 22s & 20s….
He’s a 9 now with 24 chase runs on his CV – and you can never be sure how he’ll go….
But he retains ability and – on a going day – he can still produce….
In March he outran a massive price to finish 3rd in the Kim Muir off 127….
He ran in the Becher last year – finishing 6th of 21 off 137. He’s not fazed by the big fences – he’s completed 3/3 when encountering them….
His yard’s in hot form – 6 handicap chase winners in the last fortnight – and he produced a decent effort on return at Exeter a fortnight back….
Off 125 he’ll be encountering these fences off 7lb lower than ever before. Lucy Turner takes off a useful 5lbs. On his game, he’ll go better than the price says….
Riders Onthe Storm has gone up just 2lbs for his Old Roan win at Aintree in October….
…. when he had Hitman (Haydock winner next time & G1 King George entrant) and Ga Law (won Paddy Power Gold Cup next time) in arrears….
On 141 he remains extraordinarily well-handicapped on old form in tomorrow’s Boylesports Daily Money Back 2nd Handicap Chase at Aintree (2.40) – and I see why he’s up at 11/4….
But hotpots are there to be opposed and KILTEALY BRIGGS at the general 8s is a better proposition in my book….
He’s up just 3lbs for a Market Rasen win where he did too much early doors – on account of freshness – before dossing up the straight….
Jamie Snowden has been patient in pinpointing his next assignment. The Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Grand Sefton were both considered – but he turns out in these calmer waters….
He disappointed in good handicaps last Spring – but he’s in a different place now and is a ‘live’ contender off 143….
Not many look like ‘live’ contenders in the London National Handicap Chase at Sandown (3.30)….
…. but QUICK WAVE stands out as one who is and he can land the spoils for Venetia Williams….
He comes off an impressive win at Ludlow – impressive enough to overcome a 7lb rise up the handicap against multiple opponents with questions to answer….
The generals 9/2 & 4s is not a traditional ATC price. But – given the make-up of the race – it’s fair enough….
Finally, BENSON has turned a corner since joining Sandy Thomson – producing two encouraging back to back performances….
He heads into tomorrow’s Boylesports Extra Places Daily Handicap Hurdle at Aintree (3.15) on a nice mark and carrying a nice racing weight….
Brian Hughes is an interesting booking and – at the 11s – I’m prepared to swing the bat….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the Becher Chase (2.05 @ Aintree)….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 7. It’s 1/5 the first 6 generally…. In the Boylesports Daily Money Back 2nd Handicap Chase (2.40 @ Aintree)….
e/w terms = 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the London National Handicap Chase (3.30 @ Sandown)….
e/w terms = 1/5 first 4 generally…. In the Boylesports Extra Places Daily Handicap Hurdle (3.15 @ Aintree)….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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