Wednesday, 4th January 2023
On Saturday at Sandown a bunch of stalwarts gather for a late-career tilt at a £100k pot – in the final of the Veterans’ Handicap Chase series at Sandown….
There’ve been 7 editions of the race – and I’ve studied those in detail….
…. hoping to dig out useful insights we might factor into our bet-finding deliberations later in the week….
There’s neither an absolutely right nor an incontrovertibly wrong way to campaign a horse towards this final….
They get there any which way – and the 19 entries this year provide a range of variations that illustrate the point….
Take Elegant Escape – the biggest money earner with an entry, winner of the 2018 Welsh Grand National, and one of just two course and distance in the field….
He won Leg 5 of the qualifying series at Ascot in March off 140 – and went up to 143. He’s been beaten twice since then – dropping back to 140. He’s where he started this cycle – and 22lbs off his best-ever mark….
Victor Dartnell has done it similarly with Run To Milan. He won Leg 1 at Exeter last February off 132 – and went up 6lbs to 138….
Three subsequent defeats have seen him drop to 128 – and he goes into the final on a handier mark than he qualified on and 10lb off his career-best rating….
Sandy Thomson’s done it differently with Dingo Dollar. He won Leg 8 at Aintree in October off 145 – going up to 150….
He’s dropped a pound to 149 but goes into Saturday’s final at the top-end of his career range and just 2lb off his career high – a notable feat for an 11yo handicapper….
Chambard, Broken Quest, Up Helly Aa King and Snow Leopardess are other potential runners at the top end of their ranges….
Qualification is a case of different strokes for different folks….
And – it should be noted – you don’t have to win a series qualifier (of which there are 12) to get into the final….
You don’t even need to achieve a minimum finishing place – as you would for the Pertemps Final (for example)….
In this series you only need to run in a qualifier to qualify for the final. Multiple horses still in the final were beaten in qualifiers. Several didn’t even finish. Qualification isn’t exactly onerous….
And you can qualify for the final without running in a qualifier at all. If you’re declared for a qualifier that’s abandoned – you qualify for the series final….
This year Ballyandy and Crosspark qualify on that basis. They were declared for the abandoned Leg 9 qualifier at Sandown in November….
How did previous winners make the final? What might that line of inquiry deliver? Let’s look….
Soll (2016) qualified in Leg 2 at Exeter – 1st of 14 off 130. He raced four times over fences between qualifying and the final (taking in qualifying Leg 4). Rated 145 in the final he was 15lbs ahead of his qualifying mark and 1lb off his career high….
Pete The Feat (2017) qualified in Leg 3 at Newbury – 2nd of 12 off 133. He raced three times over fences between qualifying and the final (taking in Leg 5) where he raced off 124 – 9lb below qualifying and 19lbs off his best….
Buywise (2018) qualified in Leg 1 at Exeter – 10th of 12 off 148. He raced twice more over fences and once over hurdles ahead of the final where he was rated 138 – 10lbs below qualifying and 14lb off his career-best….
Houblon Des Obeaux (2019) qualified in Leg 5 at Ascot – 3rd of 8 off 144. He ran four more times over fences before contesting the final off 135 – 9lbs below his qualifying mark and 27lbs off his career best….
Jepack (2020) qualified in Leg 4 at Carlisle – 2nd of 6 off 127. He didn’t run again over fences before the final – taking in three races over hurdles instead. He ran in the final off 132 – a career high and 5lbs up from qualifying….
Seeyouatmidnight (2021) qualified in Leg 4 at Carlisle – 1st of 6 off 138. He ran in Leg 12 of the qualifying series ahead of the final – where he ran off 139. That was 1lb above qualifying mark and 15lb short of his career high….
Prime Venture (2022) qualified in leg 12 at Haydock – pulled up off 134. He ran next time in the final off 130 – 4lb below his qualifying mark and 9lb below his best….
There’s quite a bit of data there which suggests another potentially useful line of inquiry – one that might have a sting in the tail….
We’ll get to that – and other interesting features of this race – tomorrow….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – watch Prime Venture’s win in last season’s edition….
And – revisit Seeyouatmidnight’s win in 2021 here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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