Thursday, 5th January 2023
Continuing on from yesterday….
The Veterans’ Handicap Chase series final is run at Sandown on Saturday….
…. seven previous editions provide a variety of interesting pointers….
…. and today we look at how this season’s contestants – a maximum field of 18 – measure up to some key metrics….
Soll (+15), Jepack (+5) and Seeyouatmidnight (+1) ran in the final rated higher than when they qualified….
…. whilst Pete The Feat (-9), Buywise (-10), Houblon Des Obeaux (-9) and Prime Venture (-4) rated lower….
Only one winner – Soll – was rated higher than 140….
The table below shows this year’s runners; current marks; marks on qualifying – and the difference….
With Dingo Dollar withdrawn only top-weight (and favourite) Ramses De Teillee and Indy Five are significantly ahead of their respective qualifying marks – 14/18 are rated lower….
Seeyouatmidnight was up just 1lb when he won off 139 in 2021. And Jepack – though up 5lb in 2020 – was lightly raced and not typical of the horses this race attracts….
Ramses De Teillee is rated 144, must overcome a bigger hike and already has plenty of miles on the clock….
…. the stats suggest he’s opposable….
…. and that’s before you consider his record going right-handed. He’s 0 from 6 going clockwise in hurdles and chases – beaten an aggregate 88+l….
Five of the previous seven winners were 9lbs to 27lbs off their career-high official ratings….
The table below illustrates where Saturday’s runners stand….
Ramses De Teillee scores well on this metric – but I’m still opposing him….
How you use this data – if you use it at all – is your business. There’s no right or wrong way….
But I’d be less interested in horses close to the top of their rating ranges and more interested in those down toward the basement end of the scale….
Of course, we’re dealing with older horses. You’d expect them to have declined from their peak ratings….
It isn’t a simple case of looking at the horse with the biggest drop and automatically singling it out as the best-advantaged….
It’s more complex than that. You need to make a case for the horse still being good enough to capitalise….
That might well form part of my job tomorrow….
Finally, six of our seven previous winners had qualified before Leg 6 of the series had even been run….
In other words, their trainers got them into the final well ahead of time….
None subsequently won anything decent ahead of the final – so my assumption is that trainers got horses qualified early in the hope of having sufficient time to get them back down the rating scale….
…. hoping to be well-handicapped in time for the final….
That’s my theory anyhow….
The table below shows which leg of the qualifying series this year’s finalists qualified via; how many times they’ve raced since; and how many more qualifying legs they subsequently ran in….
On past results, you should focus on the horses that qualified earliest….
…. but – be warned – last year was the year the early-bird trend got upended. Prime Venture – he goes again on Saturday – didn’t qualify for the final until Leg 12….
I’ve got some thoughts on this issue. My contrarian antenna is twitching – and I might well stand in opposition to the numbers when I make my bet selection….
But I’ll leave that until tomorrow. I need to do a bit more thinking….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – they’re expecting rain at Sandown. Keep your eye on track conditions here….
And – if you’re interested – you’ll find the BHA’s information sheet on the Veterans’ Chase Series here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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