Friday, 6th January 2023
I highlighted yesterday that horses who qualified early in the series have won 6 of the 7 Veterans’ Handicap Chase series finals run to date….
It’s a nice stat and it may well be upheld in tomorrow’s renewal at Sandown (3.00)….
…. but I’m going the other way and backing COO STAR SIVOLA at the general 8s….
He qualified in Leg 12 of the series qualifiers at Haydock at the end of November – just like last season’s winner Prime Venture – last chance saloon for those horses specifically targeted at the final….
Yes, he ran a stinker on what was his first run for trainer Venetia Williams….
…. but he surely needed a racecourse appearance after 595 days on the side lines – and I expect him to be a different proposition completely going forward….
I’d be surprised if this race isn’t the specific target for a horse once rated 150 after winning the 2018 edition of the Ultima at Cheltenham off 142….
He’s down to 127 tomorrow, getting chunks of weight from those at the top of the handicap and the rain expected to fall overnight and tomorrow morning is very much in his favour….
He’s potentially really well-handicapped – and not just on antique form. He posted a couple of 140s on the RPR scale last term – one of which he produced over course and distance on heavy ground….
If Venetia’s worked her magic – she won this race in devastating fashion with Houblon Des Obeaux back in 2019 – then he’s weighted to go close….
I think it’s between the front two in the market in the Unibet Handicap Hurdle at 3.35 – with preference for Djelo….
Putting up outright favourites isn’t what this column is about – and I’m giving that race the swerve….
But I am having a crack at the G1 Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle (2.25) – and nailing my colours to the mast of Kerry Lee’s NEMEAN LION….
There’s plenty been said this week about the likes of Authorised Speed, Tahmuras and Irish raider Arctic Bresil….
The markets and the pundits are well onto those as respective quotes of 2s, 9/4 and 3s reveal….
But Numean Lion is a handy each-way price at 16s for a horse just twice-raced over timber – and officially rated just 1lb and 3lb lower than the top-2 British horses….
Bought for 18,000 guineas out of Andre Fabre’s yard, the ex-Godolphin gelding made a good impression on his hurdling debut at Hereford and then improved a little at Haydock next time – albeit finding one too good….
He might well be running for place money, for the experience, or to give his owner a day out. Who knows?
But he could have plenty more to give yet and – crucially – he does have form on soft ground over hurdles and on the flat in Britain and in France. And that could well prove to be a big leveller on the day….
The hasn’t been too active of late – having been out of form earlier in the season. But they bagged a winner earlier in the week – the first since November – and things might well have turned….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the Veterans’ Handicap Chase Series Final (3.00 @ Sandown)….
e/w terms = William Hill & Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle (2.25 @ Sandown)….
e/w terms = 1/5 the first 3 generally…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
Back on Monday….
Meantime: Contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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