The pick of the prices in the Thyestes....

Wednesday, 25th January 2023

The pick of the prices in the Thyestes….

You have to take your chances where you find them….

…. and with all the cancelled racing over the last fortnight or so….

…. and with so many of the races we have had go ahead producing smaller fields than I would like….

…. I’m not going to miss the opportunity to take aim at tomorrow’s Grade A Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park in Ireland – where 18 go to post over the 3m1f trip….

• ‘Super’ yards….

It can’t go unremarked that between them Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins provide 14 of the 21 horses still with an interest in tomorrow’s race….

Three horses – including two of the Mullins contingent – are standing by as reserves at the moment….

Is it a healthy situation when two ‘super’ yards are quite so dominant?

Probably not. But I’m not sure what you do about it and this afternoon isn’t the time to discuss it in any case….

I just wanted to report that Elliott and Mullins have won nine of the last 21 renewals of the race between them – Mullins is 7-2 up – and have also produced 21 of the placed horses over the same period….

…. and to point out that the pair have the deck well-and truly stacked in their favour again this time around….

Of the two, Mullins is quite clearly the man in the best form – over the last month – and his record in this race is nothing short of dominant….

He’s fired his fair share of shots over the last couple of decades – 62 to be precise….

They can’t all hit the target, of course, but a record of 7 winners and 13 additional placers reveals that Mullins isn’t simply blasting off indiscriminately. He’s had a winner or a placer – sometimes both – in seven of the last nine renewals….

Elliott is two wins and eight placers from his 42 participants in the race – with the vast majority of his success registered since 2016….

• The pick of the prices…. 

Perhaps surprisingly – given all I’ve said – I’m opposing Mullins….

I don’t want to back Carefully Selected at 8s – however lightly raced he is for an 11yo….

…. and there are question marks hanging over the bigger-priced Mullins participants that are assured of a run….

That being the case I’m going two-against-the-field. I’m backing both horses win only – and foregoing the chance to land place money….

I know some of you don’t like that strategy. Fair enough. My primary pick is Gordon Elliott’s FRONTAL ASSAULT at 14s. If you’re looking to back just one horse – he’d be the one….

Performances in defeat at Fairyhouse in April and at Navan in November tell you that valuable big-field handicap events at staying trips float this 8yo’s boat….

He was favourite for the Troytown in November. He didn’t have much luck in running that day – but still finished 5th of the 18….

I’d ignore his last time out performance in a G1 novice chase at Leopardstown where he was always going to be up against it at the weights….

On a mark of 142 he’s got more to come yet back in handicap company – and he can run a big race tomorrow with Kieren Buckley taking off 5lb….

The other one I’m backing is Henry De Bromhead’s GABBY’S CROSS at the general 14s....

He was the yard’s second-stringer when returning from a break in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December – but ran a cracker to finish 6th of the 28 beaten just 4-lengths from what looked like an unpromising position at one point….

The 8yo is another who looks well-suited to the hustle and bustle of these big field affairs – evidenced by his win in a big handicap at Galway in July and a competitive effort in the Kerry National at Listowel in September….

That run at Leopardstown will have brought him on and – rated 144 tomorrow – he can rate higher still. Rachael Blackmore is back in the plate to assist – and that ranks a positive….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd