Friday, 27th January 2023
Cheltenham survived the noon track inspection ….
There’s a precautionary inspection lined-up for 07.30 tomorrow….
The forecast says temperatures could drop to -1 overnight – but frost covers will protect the track and I’m hopeful racing will go ahead….
Let’s get on with it….
No arguments with Fugitif occupying top spot in the betting for the Paddy Power Handicap Chase (1.50)….
He’s progressing nicely and – whilst up 10lb to 143 for a 5-length success at Chepstow – I’d be surprised if that’s the buckle end of him….
But you don’t need me to tell you the favourite has a chance. My job is to dig out a horse that can get competitive at a price….
…. and my pick of the prices is KARL PHILIPPE at the 12s….
His win at Wetherby in November was a big step forward….
…. and whilst he got beaten at Wetherby next time….
…. it was by a well-handicapped horse running at his home track….
…. and Karl Phillipe was well clear of the rest….
The defeat didn’t represent a dip in form; the 8yo remains progressive; and he’s the right to shoot at a big pot….
He’s been in better form than most of tomorrow’s opposition – and the 12s is a fair price….
He’s got to get it right, of course. He’s got to jump the fences on track debut. But that’s factored into the price….
Ga Law – with a Gold Cup entry – is rightful favourite in the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster (3.15)....
But – after a lengthy absence – he was well handicapped on old form. Now – after his big Cheltenham win – he’s back on a career high mark and must improve again….
I'm not saying he can't. The market says he can. But it's not getting any easier and DEMACHINE is my pick of the prices at the 12s....
Fancied for last season's renewal he got beat 80+l but ran better than the bare result suggests....
He made a noise during the race, underwent a wind-operation, and returned to win at Uttoxeter….
…. before showing up well at Newbury behind a well-handicapped Zanza on reappearance this term....
It was too hot for him last time at Cheltenham and he returns to 3m tomorrow – a plus in my book….
So too is the mark of 138. This horse hasn’t managed to win yet off 140+. Caoilin Quinn takes off a useful 5lbs....
There are multiple good reasons why Demachine might go deeper than last year. If he does – he’s in the mix....
Dan Skelton’s PIKAR has solid prospects in the SIS Alloys Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham (4.10)….
The 5s is not a typical ATC price – but I’m trying to temper my gung-ho spirit with a dash of pragmatism when circumstances dictate….
The 6yo let fav backers down last time at Newbury. But that was over 2m4f and he can bounce back at tomorrow’s minimum trip….
His novice hurdle win at Chepstow has worked out – franked by the runner-up and the third….
Pikar is going to prove better than his mark of 129 – and with several of tomorrow’s opposition likely to benefit from a run, Pikar’s might well have a fitness edge in his favour tomorrow afternoon….
The G2 Cotswold Chase (2.25) is billed as a match….
…. between Betfair Chase winner Protektorat….
…. and Grand National winner Noble Yeats….
The market has it 13/8 the one and 2s the other….
My preference – at the prices – is AHOY SENOR at the 8s….
He’s not quite trained on like the pick of last season’s novice crop – Bravemansgame, L’Homme Presse, Noble Yeats….
…. but he’s had all three behind him at one time or another….
…. and there’s mitigation for each of three runs this term at Wetherby (too fresh), Aintree (poor first circuit), and Kempton (unsuited to track)….
Cheltenham suits, he’s not as disadvantaged at the weights as most of his opposition; and he’s a better horse than he’s yet shown….
Thinking further ahead….
Noble Yeats & Ahoy Senor have met twice on the track….
Ahoy Senor beat Noble Yeats a 5.5l in last season’s Towton at Wetherby. Noble Yeats beat Ahoy Senor 3.5l in this season’s Many Clouds at Aintree….
Noble Yeats is 7s for the Gold Cup….
…. Ahoy Senor can be backed at 50s….
I reckon those prices overestimate the margin between the two….
If you wanted to the 50s ahead of tomorrow’s race – in anticipation of Ahoy Senor producing a performance that causes his Gold Cup price to contract – do it with Sky Bet….
They’re up Non-Runner-No-Bet – which means you’ll get your stake back if Ahoy Senor swerves Cheltenham and heads straight to Aintree for the Bowl….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 1.50 @ Cheltenham….
e/w terms = William Hill, Sky Bet & Betway are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 3.15 @ Doncaster….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 4.10 @ Cheltenham….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 6. It’s 1/5 the first 5 generally…. In the 2.25 @ Cheltenham….
e/w terms = It’s 1/4 the first 2 generally…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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