Wednesday, 1st February 2023
“There are three in the Champion Chase now….”
Those are the words of Josh Moore – jockey and son of trainer Gary Moore….
He was speaking after Editeur Du Gite’s shock win in the rescheduled G1 Clarence House Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday….
…. where the 9yo beat the highly-touted Edwardstone and the heavily-fancied Energumene….
Watch the race again here….
I’m not crabbing Editeur Du Gite’s performance….
…. which earned an RPR of 170 and announced him as a genuine contender at the top end of the 2m chase division….
Josh Moore clearly believes the Champion Chase is between his father’s horse and the two that followed him home….
…. and he might be right….
…. but I wonder if – in all the excitement – Moore miscounted….
After all, three-time G1 winner Greanateen has a shout….
…. and Blue Lord is still in there – a potential second string to the Mullins bow….
And what about NUBE NEGRA? How quickly he’s become the division’s forgotten horse….
It wasn’t so long ago he was raved about as the next big prospect….
But here he is in February 2023….
…. still only 9-years-old….
…. still having raced just a dozen times over fences….
…. and available at 33s and 25s in the betting for the big one….
I can’t help but think there’s value in that price….
There’s an argument that Nube Negra had (and missed) his opportunity to win a Champion Chase in 2021….
…. when he got touched off by Put The Kettle On….
He’s managed to win just a couple of small-field G2 races since….
…. and his RPRs haven’t risen beyond the low 160s….
On his one appearance this term – at Kempton in the G2 Desert Orchid over Christmas – he was soundly beaten by Editeur Du Gite….
The market responded by pushing him out to 25s for the Champion Chase (from 14s & 16s). I wonder if that was an overreaction….
At Kempton, the market saw a horse on the slide – with his best days to the rear….
I saw a horse racing on softer ground than ideal…. running out wide in search of better ground…. a horse unable to shine in the conditions….
On good spring ground at Cheltenham Nube Negra could turn out an entirely different horse than the one that got beaten at Kempton….
On good ground over fences at Cheltenham his record reads 211. Granted the two wins were produced in small fields – but he won both races in ready and eye-catching fashion….
The other race was that 2021 Champion Chase. Officially run on good to soft, race times suggest the ground was better….
My point is this: Cheltenham and good spring ground over the minimum trip are Nube Negra’s ideal conditions. And in those conditions I reckon he can significantly outrun his current odds….
I may be wrong – it wouldn’t be the first time….
The market might be correct in its assessment of Nube Negra, his ability, potential, and chances of winning this season’s Champion Chase….
But prices aren’t always an accurate representation of ability or what a horse might be capable of out on the track when conditions are in his favour….
Other factors are at work in the process that leads to a price – and not all of them are entirely reliable….
For example, prevailing narrative has a big influence on prices….
…. an influence that is often less than reliable and leads to skewed market assessments….
That phenomenon might be at work with Nube Negra’s Champion Chase price….
The 2m chase division narrative has been pretty much dominated this term by talk about Edwardstone and Energumene. Greanateen has had his moments in the spotlight. Editeur Du Gite is being talked about now….
Nube Negra has barely been spoken of or written about at all….
A big part of that is down to the fact he’s been seen just once this term – in adverse circumstances that impacted his performance….
…. whilst the others have been on the TV doing the business out on the track….
In racing the ongoing conversation is almost always based on what just happened….
…. or what is about to happen….
Markets – in my opinion – tend to value most those things they have seen most recently….
…. probably because that’s what’s being talked about most….
When a horse like Nube Negra disappears from view and isn’t being talked about….
…. not only does that horse quickly get forgotten….
…. it can also become increasingly underestimated, undervalued – and overpriced….
I think there’s an element of this forgetfulness in Nube Negra’s price….
Absence from the prevailing narrative doesn’t necessarily mean a horse is any less potent a force than it was before….
A protracted break from racing is not the same thing as a deterioration in ability or potential….
In fact, a break from racing can be an advantage for a horse….
Nube Negra will head straight to Cheltenham without another run. He’ll have been off the track 78 days when they go to post….
But that’s a plus. He’s a horse that goes well fresh off a break. Off breaks of 10+ weeks his form figures read: 18B112131….
That’s an eye-catching record. It hasn’t been part of the narrative this term. And it probably isn’t finding much expression in Nube Negra’s price….
The Champion Chase looks like a real hot race. There are certainly more than three horses in with chances….
Right now – at the prices – Nube Negra is the pick of them for me….
That’s all for today. Back tomorrow….
Meantime – my new report contains a comprehensive Champion Chase winning profile. Download here….
Finally – contact me direct at – nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned….
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