The pick of the prices at Sandown, Musselburgh & Leopardstown....

Friday, 3rd February 2023

The pick of the prices at Sandown, Musselburgh & Leopardstown….

Sandy Thomson does well at Musselburgh. He’s bagged 34/156 @ 21.8% since 2009 and delivered a profit of almost 50 points to level stakes….

He doesn’t send so many to Sandown – just three over the same period….

…. but Sandown is nevertheless the destination for preferred yard jockey Ryan Mania tomorrow – rather than Musselburgh….

…. and it might well be because STORM NELSON has a better chance in the Heroes Handicap Hurdle than the 16s about him suggests….

He’s 10 now and up against some younger bucks. But he’s also on the upgrade. Since joining Thomson he’s won five of his seven assignments – and he’s only raced 13 times over timber….

This term – off a long break and a wind operation – he’s won two from two and posted career tops in each performance….

Last time at Ayr he beat a decent yardstick readily and a 6lb rise in his rating might not stop him….

This is a stiffer assignment – but he’s earned his shot and connections must believe he’s worth the petrol money. He handles dig and he’s got form going right-handed….

There are dangers in the field. This is a handicap, after all. Jet Of Magic for the Nicholls & Cobden combo is an obvious call….

But my job isn’t to be obvious – or to play it safe. My job is to stick my neck out and put one up at a bigger price. Storm Nelson fits the bill….

• The Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (3.30)….

They watered in the back straight at Sandown this week….

…. and not every horse will appreciate the drying ground….

EQUUS DANCER will and can be backed at 12s and 11s on his first crack at proper money….

He’d been off 522 days when he won at Hereford in December in first-time cheekpieces – producing a career-best performance or something close to….

He’s had 6-weeks to get over that. He’ll appreciate direction of travel. And the cheekpieces are retained….

Harry Skelton rode him to victory last time. Gavin Sheehan picks up the reins tomorrow. He rode the horse over hurdles….

Equus Dancer ran right up to tomorrow’s mark last time and – assuming he strips fitter – he’ll improve again….

• In the Edinburgh National (2.03)….

Sandy Thomson won this race with Full Jack in 2018 and three entries this year suggest the yard wants to win the race again….

Flower Of Scotland is their primary contender – fresh off a win in the Borders National at Kelso and up 8lbs….

But he’s well-found by the market and – at the prices – I’m more interested in THE FERRY MASTER….

He’s up at 20s and that’s a big price about a horse that was well-fancied for this race in 2021 – before heavy ground forced a pull out….

He’s better-handicapped now – on 120 rather than 134. And this time around the ground is drying out – which will really suit him….

Of course, he’s tumbled down the ratings on account of poor performances. He’s been out of form for a while….

But last time – over 3m at Musselburgh in January – he ran well for a long way. Well enough to suggest he’s on the turnaround….

Tomorrow’s stamina test on decent ground will suit. His 4/22 finish in the 2021 Scottish Grand National off a mark of 133 tells you what he can do on his day. If he’s back on his game tomorrow then he’s dangerous….

• In the Sandyford Chase (4.10)….

I’m opening my shoulders and having a proper swing of the bat in the Sandyford Chase at Leopardstown….

I’m backing JODY TED at the general 33s….

He’s probably that price – and one of the rags – because this is a big step up in class compared to the races he’s been running in….

But he served notice that he might be interesting going forward when jumping for fun and finishing his race off strongly and in a decent time at Clonmel in December….

And – whilst he disappointed the last couple of times (last time excusably) – an opening handicap chase mark of 123 (off which he carries bottom weight) could underestimate Eoin Griffin’s 7yo….

Perhaps I’m wrong and the real intention is to convince the Irish handicapper – by way of a heavy defeat – to drop the horse a few pounds before he starts his handicap career proper….

Or perhaps connections are looking to cash in on a lenient mark at the first time of asking – hence the ambition. That’s the scenario I’m buying into….

Even if Jody Ted falls short and only manages to hit the places, it won’t be a bad day for connections or backers….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week….

Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk  

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd