Friday, 17th February 2023
The Two Amigos made loads of appeal for the Grand National Trial at Haydock (2.40)….
He won the Welsh Grand National last time out and went up 5lbs for it – but he’s still rated just 132….
…. and that’s 12lb shy of the mark he ran off when finishing 3rd in this race back in 2021….
He’s reported to be in rude health at home, we know he likes the track, and he looks very well handicapped – but will he get his ground?
He wants it plenty soft and I just don’t think it’s going to suit him tomorrow….
One horse that will be suited by the ground is Donald McCain’s TIM PAT – and I’m going to back him at the general 10s….
He won the Tim Moloney over course and distance – on a sound surface – last March….
Haydock is a track that can tend to suit course specialists – so his winning experience there counts as a big plus….
…. and – after two disappointing efforts on softer surfaces this term – he bounced back to form last time on decent ground at Doncaster over 3m….
A sound surface appears to be the key to getting a tune out of him – and he’ll definitely appreciate the extra yardage tomorrow….
Despite being 3lbs out of the handicap (never ideal) there are sufficient race features in his favour to suggest he can post another top tomorrow – which would see him go close….
It’s a funny race – with plenty of horses probably needing it a bit slower – and he’s getting more of what he wants than most….
The bookies are playing it safe in the LK Bennett Swinley Handicap Chase at Ascot (2.25)….
…. they’ve got five of the 14 runners in at 4s to 6s….
In other words, they’re not sure, they don’t want to take any chances, and they’re happy to wait for the money to tell its own story as we get closer to race time….
For me it translates as a direct invitation to look further down the list for something that might be overlooked at the prices….
…. and I wonder why Tom Lacey’s NOCTE VOLATUS is up as the rag at a big 33s….
He certainly wasn’t disgraced last time at Cheltenham over 2m5f on soft when stepped up to compete for proper money for the first time….
He was progressive last year – rising from a mark of 90 to 132 – but he could well have more to offer yet. He’s only had 9 goes over fences….
… and the step up to the 3m trip tomorrow is interesting….
It could well be a roll of the dice on Lacey’s part…. an experiment…. a looksee to discover what the options are going forward….
…. but Ascot is a short 3-miles, his sire gets plenty of stayers, the ground is on the decent side and the extra distance might well be the variable that brings about more improvement from this 8yo….
The yard is certainly in form and I’d rather take my chances and swing the bat at the big price than back one of the shorties – but that’s just how I am….
Shiskin steps up to 2m5f for the first time in the Ascot Chase (3.35)….
How straight he’ll be is anybody’s guess – and the market takes the view that Fakir D’oudairies is the one of the six that will come out on top….
Fair enough, but I’m betting against both those horses and backing PIC D’ORHY at the general 11/4s….
He’s the definite form horse coming into the race – winning all three of his assignments to date this term (including a brace of G2s) and producing a career top RPR last time at Kempton….
If you were going to design a race for Paul Nicholls’s 8yo then it would surely be a small-field contest at this kind of trip on a right-handed track on a decent surface….
That’s exactly what he gets tomorrow and this is an excellent opportunity to break his duck in G1s – and to announce his arrival in the top rank of the intermediate chase division….
He’s the up-and coming horse in tomorrow’s line up; he’s fit and firing; his yard’s won the race three times previously….
…. and you can be sure Harry Cobden will have a plan in mind….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 2.40 @ Haydock….
e/w terms = William Hill, Sky Bet, Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power are 1/5 the first 5…. In the 2.25 @ Ascot….
e/w terms = Sky Bet are 1/5 the first 5. It’s 1/5 the first 4 generally…. In the 3.35 @ Ascot….
e/w terms = it’s 1/4 the first 2…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today….
I’ll be back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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