The pick of the prices on Day 1 at Cheltenham....

Monday, 13th March 2023

The pick of the prices on Day 1 at the Cheltenham….

Just one bet tomorrow – I’ll be plenty busier as the week goes on….

MONBEG GENIUS is my opening salvo at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival….

I’m backing Jonjo O’Neill’s 7yo to take the honours in tomorrow’s Ultima (2.50) at the general 12s….

There’s an obvious downside to this bet in that the son of Shantou has only raced four times over fences….

In other words, he’s inexperienced….

Only a couple in tomorrow’s 23-runner field are less experienced over the big obstacles….

Monbeg Genius has never run at this level….

…. he’s never run against such a big field….

…. and it remains to be seen how he will hold up under pressure amidst all the hustle and bustle of a big Festival chase….

On the upside, he’s better than the 140 mark he runs off – so he’s at the right end of the handicap….

He’s progressive too. He’s had a good first season chasing….

Last time – his third win in three – was another step forward in terms of performance….

…. if he improves again tomorrow – to the tune of just a few more pounds – he will be on the premises….

The form of his last win at Chepstow has worked out as well as could have been hoped for….

Stormy Flight produced a 6-length win at Taunton next time before going close again at Wincanton the time after off a 9lb higher rating….

On top of all that Monbeg Genius is an accurate jumper, he travels well from the front of the field – handy on the Old chasing course at Cheltenham – and he won’t mind the ground….

It’s going to be about whether or not he can produce a bigger performance at a higher level on the day….

There are no guarantees, of course….

…. but – at the prices – he’s the one that ticks plenty of the right boxes. He’s just the sort to do well if he can put it all together….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd