The pick of the prices on Day 4 at Cheltenham....

Thursday, 16th March 2023

The pick of the prices on Day 4 at Cheltenham….

Today is Day 3 at the Cheltenham Festival….

…. which means the Pertemps Final, the Magners Plate, the Kim Muir &the Stayers’ Hurdle….

I sent out my betting advice for this afternoon’s races yesterday. If you missed it, you’ll find it here….

I go out early doors with my advice in the hope of bagging the best of the prices about my race selections….

Sometimes it comes off. Other times it doesn’t….

… but because I go out early with my selections, we are always a little ahead of the game here at ATC….

The flag hasn’t been raised on Day 3 – and I’m already thinking about Day 4….

…. which means the County Hurdle, the Martin Pipe Hurdle, and the Gold Cup….

• The County Hurdle….

Dan Skelton has won three of the last seven editions of the County Hurdle (2.10)….

…. his horses appear to appreciate something about the configuration of the New Course….

In PEMBROKE I reckon Skelton’s got another serious contender for tomorrow afternoon’s race – and I’m happy to take the 8s….

Scrub the last time out defeat in the G2 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle on Trials Day at Cheltenham. He didn’t stay the longer trip on the soft ground….

…. but a fast-run race back over the 2m trip tomorrow could well prove ideal for a horse that’s already demonstrated he handles a big-field scenario and can act on the New course at Cheltenham….….

This will be his handicap debut. He kicks off on a mark of 136 – and I’d suggest he’s almost certain to prove better than that. He’s got a big chance….

I want to have a second dart in this race – those of you that don’t like to back more than one horse in a single race should move on now….

The other one I want to back each-way at the 20s is Terence O’Brien’s MAGNOR GLORY with crack 3lb claimer Michael O’Sullivan in the plate….

He’s been off the track since last seen winning a decent big-field handicap in a good time at Listowel in September….

I’d imagine this has been the target since then. His mark has been protected, I’m not concerned about the break – because he’s gone so well fresh in the past – and his yard is going nicely right now….

There’s a lot to like, he ticks a lot of the right sorts of boxes and he’s a nice price….

• The Martin Pipe….

I’m going with Gordon Elliott in the Martin Pipe (5.30) but not with the most fancied of his entries – Cool Survivor and Imagine….

Instead, I’m backing FIRM FOOTINGS at the general 16s. I think he’ll improve massively for the step back up to 2m4f tomorrow afternoon….

He’s already shown he can handle the hustle and bustle of these heavily populated races. He’s shown up well in a quartet of big-field maidens this term – getting his head in front last time….

He earned himself an opening Irish mark of 130 – but pays 4lbs worth of British ‘tax’ to run in tomorrow’s race. Even so – an effective mark of 134 leaves this 5yo with plenty of margin to run into yet….

We know already that he stays the longer trip and I reckon he’ll run a bigger race tomorrow than his nice each-way price suggests….

• The Gold Cup….

Longer term readers will know that I jumped on AHOY SENOR at 50s for the Gold Cup – ahead of his win in the Cotswold on Trials Day at Cheltenham….

He’s been a bit of an enigma – not helping himself on occasions. But that win at Cheltenham was an improved performance – and if he improves again then he is very much in the mix….

Like a lot of horses ahead of a big race Galopin Des Champs looks like he’s going to be a tough nut to crack tomorrow.

…. but they are all beatable. The Mullins jolly hasn’t yet faced this calibre of opposition

…. and we don’t know how he or his slick jumping will stand up to a likely end-to-end gallop…..

And it’s not like he’s the only decent horse in the race. A Plus Tard has already won the race. So too Minella Indo – though he has a little more to prove heading into this year’s renewal….

Bravemansgame won this season’s King George, Protektorat won the Betfair Chase and Grand National winner Noble Yeats looks sure to improve on his Cotswold showing – with tomorrow’s extra yardage playing to his strengths….

But I see no reason to desert Ahoy Senor….

He too has more room yet for improvement. He’s in a good place right now. And we know he acts on the Cheltenham courses – Old & New….

If he gets into a good groove early on with his jumping then he is more dangerous than his odds of 20s suggest….

I’m going to stick to my guns and stick with the Russell horse – at his very best (which we have yet to see) I believe he’s good enough to at least hit the frame tomorrow….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back tomorrow….

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd