Friday, 24th March 2023
Heltenham is favourite for tomorrow’s Run For Your Money At Bet Victor Handicap Chase at Newbury (2.05)….
It’s not hard to understand why….
Dan Skelton’s 6yo chaser hasn’t finished outside the first two in any of his chase assignments this term….
He’s only had four goes – but he’s improved for each and posted a career-best RPR of 131 when winning last time at Ffos Las….
The official handicapper’s raised him 16lbs since the start of October….
He’s on the up – and the one horse in tomorrow’s field whose been making big leaps forward of late….
I can see why punters might want him onside at the 4s….
But tomorrow’s race is a big step-up. It’s not a major handicap by any stretch of the imagination – but it will require another big improvement….
So far – in four chases – Heltenham is yet to take on a single opponent rated higher than 120. Tomorrow his nine opponents are rated 129 to 140….
In other words, he’s racing against better horses than he’s faced before in a much deeper race than he’s previously encountered….
He may well have much more to come yet off a mark of 123. He’s still very lightly raced, after all….
…. but – whilst he’s certainly the form horse in the race – his assignment is no penalty kick….
I’m taking him on – as a matter of default. That’s my job. You don’t need me to parrot the market….
My job is to flag-up horses that can go well at bigger prices – horses you may have overlooked or failed to consider….
Horses like ZHIGULI – up at the general 12s….
It’s not been a great season for horses that need soft ground. But the rains have certainly come at Newbury this week….
…. 18mm of fell on Wednesday….. and another 10mm on Thursday….
The ground is soft at the track – with the going stick measuring 5.0 on the chase course this morning….
Gary Moore’s 8yo is very much a beneficiary….
Over fences on soft ground his form figures read 131 – the win coming at Sandown just a fortnight back….
Moore is no doubt hoping to strike again whilst the softer ground persists – and whilst his iron is hot….
Zhiguli runs off 129 – raised 4lb for that win last time – but there is margin in his mark yet. He’s rated 133 at best – and he can go beyond that….
He was rated 125 over hurdles, I think he’s a plenty better chaser than he was hurdler, and – given the right conditions – his fencing mark can march on from his ‘top’ over hurdles….
He’s in decent form, he’s got his ground and there is mileage yet in his mark.
I can’t really see past the lightly-raced improvers in the 1.50 at Kelso – and they’ve been well found by the market….
So, it’s on to the Make Your Best Bet At BetVictor Handicap Chase at 3.35 – and there’s another improving type at the top of the market for that one….
Anthony Honeyball’s Forward Plan is the market’s the one to beat….
Fair enough. He’s 2/3 over fences. He’s already produced a best of 130 on the RPR scale. And – since December – the handicapper’s shifted him from 111 to tomorrow’s mark of 125….
The manner of his win last time suggested that there’s plenty more to come. That’s why the market want him….
But you know how it is at ATC. I never play safe. I don’t go into a shell. I always take the fancied horses on….
Forward Plan is up against quite a few out-of-form types tomorrow – types it is hard to make a solid case for….
I just know Mighty Thunder – he’s been tumbling down the ratings – is going to pop up at some point off an ultra-low mark. They keep running him and sooner or later it will happen….
But he needs to finish a race off – much more robustly than he has been doing – before I could justify putting money down….
Sandy Thomson runs Hill Sixteen – but he’s up toward the upper end of his career OR scale and I prefer the claims of his other runner DOYEN BREED at 7s….
He’s down to a mark of 131 from a high-point of 143. Now, he should never have been raised 13lbs to 143 for a defeat of Emiton on chase debut. The form wasn’t great….
But 131 is a workable mark. He showed an improved performance last time and this step back up to a proper staying trip will suit. I also note that Ryan Mania is back on riding duties – after a two-race hiatus….
Doyen Breed is weighted to get very competitive if he can go out and put a performance together….
The pick of the prices….To recap on my bets for tomorrow…. In the 2.05 @ Newbury….
e/w terms = Sky Bet, William Hill & Livescore are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally…. In the 3.35 @ Kelso….
e/w terms = Sky Bet, William Hill, Unibet & Livescore are 1/5 the first 4. It’s 1/5 the first 3 generally…. Advised prices are correct on publication – but prices are subject to fluctuation. Consult Oddschecker – you may find better quotes and terms than advised…. |
That’s all for today. Back next week….
Meantime – contact me direct at nick.pullen@oxonpress.co.uk
Stay tuned.
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