The pick of the prices at Doncaster....

Friday, 31st March 2023

The pick of the prices at Doncaster….

We know for sure that the ground tomorrow at Doncaster will be soft for the Lincoln at 3.35….

We know too that underfoot conditions are likely to favour race favourite – the William Haggas trained Al Mubhir….

Awaal – another big fancy – has won a handicap on heavy….

Wanees has produced a win on soft ground….

We can’t know for sure how each horse’s from on soft ground will translate tomorrow – in a higher-class big-field handicap race….

These are young and lightly-raced horses. It is – as yet – unclear exactly what conditions suit best. The facts are still emerging….

But – for now at least – punters with money down on the fancied horses will take encouragement from the state of the ground….

• The pick of the prices….

Of course, we all know that extreme ground can play a big part in producing unexpected results….

In such conditions it isn’t always the best horse in the race that wins. It is often the horse able to act in the conditions most effectively on the day that comes on top….

And when you get a horse who handles extreme ground – and who goes into the race potentially well-handicapped – it’s advisable to take notice….

Especially when that horse is up at 20s….

BOPEDRO is a 7yo. On the stats he’s not a good bet for the Lincoln – older horses don’t do well….

But this is no ordinary Lincoln. The ability to go on desperate ground under a good weight could well make a mess of the trends….

Bopedro is no sapling. He’s raced 30 times and he’s been around the block a few times too – David O’Meara is the 7yo’s sixth trainer….

He had five goes for O’Meara last term. The best of them was the last – a 7f handicap at Doncaster in heavy ground in October….

He ran a decent race that day in 2nd. He was no match for the winner….

…. Totally Charming – who went up 8lb for the win and showed up well until late on in last week’s Irish Lincolnshire at the Curragh (where he was sent off favourite)….

… but it was a big step forward and an indication that David O’Meara had made some progress in getting to grips with the horse….

David O’Meara has a cracking record in the Lincoln – winning once and going close repeatedly – and you’d imagine this race has been the target Bopedro’s end-of-season assignment at Doncaster….

He’s rated 97. That’s 10lb below his career-best mark and just 3lb over his last winning mark. If O’Meara has him right and firing then he’s weighted to go well….

Some readers don’t like it – but I want to be two-against-the-field. If you don’t like backing two in a single race – then consider Bopedro my number one pick and just back that….

The other one I want to be with is John Quinn’s EMPIRESTATEOFMIND at 18s & 16s….

He has a good 4yo season – winning twice, producing form figures of 21222 in his last five goes (including in three big field handicaps) and going up the rankings to the tune of 16lbs….

He’s up to 99 now. But his performances at Doncaster and at Ascot at the back end of last term – both on ground with cut and both over a mile – suggest he remains competitive….

He was 2/16 beaten a half-length by Atrium (reopposing tomorrow) at Doncaster off 95 and 2nd beaten 1 length by Substantial at Ascot off 97….

He handles ground with cut, he ran well enough on seasonal debut in last term’s Spring Mile and he’s as hard as nails – a tough horse who really puts in a shift. And that might just be a big attribute in his favour tomorrow….

• In the Spring Mile….

I’d suggest that there’s quite a few horses in tomorrow’s Spring Mile at 2.25  – that either haven’t been tried on a surface this soft or are patently not suited to it….

One that won’t mind the ground – one on a nice mark that can be backed at the general 14s – is Roger Fell’s HARSWELL DUKE….

Last season it wasn’t until the back end when the ground turned that he was able to put his best foot forward….

…. winning at Leicester and Nottingham on soft and heavy before performing well again under a penalty – albeit in defeat – on soft back at Nottingham….

He was rated 78 at the start of the that sequence and he’ll run off 83 tomorrow – with claimer Jonny Peate taking off a useful 5lb….

I’m mindful that connections were already talking about a tilt at the Spring Mile in the autumn. He’ll have been prepared for the race. And with the ground coming right for him he is entitled to produce a big run….

• The last word….

That’s all for today….

I’ll be back next week…

Stay tuned.

Against the Crowd